Deep Economic Thoughts

The Buffett Indicator (or Ratio) is a simple formula often referenced by famed investor Warren Buffett. It's simply, Total U.S. Stock Market Capitalization / U.S. GDP. The idea is basically higher ratios infer overvalued markets, while lower ratios may indicate stocks are broadly undervalued. Currently, this ratio stands at186%.

However, what if you applied this formula to specific sectors to discern whether that particular market segment is overvalued or undervalued relative to one another? That's the premise of this episode, where the data and charts related to its discussion can be found on our website's Research Highlights athttps://www.alignewealth.com/blog/research-highlights-04-09-2024

For more information or to submit your questions, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/

Copyright ©2024, AWAIM®. All rights reserved.

Ivan Illan, Founder & Chief Investment Officer at AWAIM® shares a conversational-style review of a recent research highlight published on the firm's website discussing U.S. credit card delinquency and other correlated metrics such as household savings, debt levels, and interest rate on credit cards. This discussion focuses on the confluence of these metrics to illustrate an increasingly stressed out economy and labor market.

For more information, charts, and data on this subject, please visit https://www.alignewealth.com/blog/research-highlights-03-06-2024

© 2024 AWAIM®

AWAIM Website: https://www.alignewealth.com/

In this episode, Founder & CIO, Ivan Illan discusses the myriad issues around having a significantly positive US Output Gap - an important economic metric that reveals underlying inflationary pressures in an economy.

For more information, charts and other details related to this episode, please visit:https://www.alignewealth.com/blog/research-highlights-02-07-2024

© 2024 AWAIM®

REPLAY: On-Air Live interview of Ivan Illan on AM830 from "The Bruce Cook Conversation" orignally broadcast on Sunday, January 7, 2024 at 6PM PST.

Ivan and Bruce chat about various economic issues impacting folks today from interest rates and taxes to debt and the upcoming election. Wide scope of topics covered and additional commentary on domestic and international risks within the capital markets for 2024.

https://www.alignewealth.com/

In this final episode for 2023, bestselling Dummies author, Forbes Finance Council member, Founder & CIO Ivan Illan, shares some preliminary insights as to what may play out during 2024 for both stock and bond markets globally.

He highlights the period beginning March 2022, which coincides with the Federal Reserve's initiating a restrictive U.S. monetary policy. Since then, stock and bond markets have been struggling to make sense of the impact, eeking out low single digit gains in stocks and still negative returns for bonds.

For more on Ivan's perspectives, please visit:
https://www.alignewealth.com/blog
https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesfinancecouncil/people/ivanillan/

© Copyright 2023 Ivan M. Illan, AWAIM®

Original Air Date: Sunday, November 19, 2023 at 6:30PM PST

Listen to the replay from the on-air interview of Founder & Chief Investment Officer Ivan Illan conducted by The Conversation's Host Bruce Cook. Ivan returns to the show answering a wide variety of questions about the US economy, upcoming elections, inflation, and the Federal Reserve.

https://www.am830.net/show/bruce-cook-show/

To learn more about Ivan Illan and AWAIM®, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/

© 2023, Ivan Illan and AWAIM

This episode includes references to data shared in Ivan's upcoming Forbes.com article tentatively entitled, "For Decades Fed Funds Remained Higher Than The Inflation Rate, May Be Once Again". Citing nearly 50 years of historical averages regarding the Effective Federal Funds Rate, 30 Year Mortgage Rate, 10-2 Year US Treasury Spread, and the 10 Year US Treasury, Ivan discusses how normal it has been for the US economy to experience sustained periods of relatively higher fed funds rate versus the inflation rate.

Since October 1976, the average US Inflation Rate has been 3.68%. Today, the most recent inflation print is eerily similar at 3.70%. Understanding the history of the Fed Funds Rate and the actions taken by the Federal Reserve to maintain labor markets and economic growth are critical to navigate the financial markets over the next few years.

For more information, please check out these resources:

AWAIM Research Highlights: https://www.alignewealth.com/blog
Ivan's Forbes Articles: https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesfinancecouncil/people/ivanillan/

AWAIM Website and Disclosures: https://www.alignewealth.com/licensing-information

© 2023, Ivan Illan and Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®)

A more casual companion piece to Ivan's article published in Forbes on October 19, 2023, entitled "What A Flattening Yield Curve Means For Future Fiscal Fitness"

Discussion on the importance of understanding the segment of the yield curve to which an investor has exposure. Also, a review of the basics on the time value of money - a related concept to yield curve dynamics.

For more information, to submit your questions, or educational resources, please visit:https://www.alignewealth.com/

© 2023 Ivan Illan & Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Managment (AWAIM®)

Regulatory Disclosures: https://www.alignewealth.com/licensing-information

In this episode Ivan cites recent PMI declines, while reframing the data that often minimizes the manufacturing sector's share of and relevance to the U.S. economy. A discussion follows on how nominal GDP data is referenced routinely, instead of real GDP. The conclusion is surprising to many - even finance professionals - regarding the enduring significance of the manufacturing sector.

Technological advancement is usually paired with unrest, struggle and generalized economic pain due to shifts in labor market demand. Ivan discusses how this has played out in previously technological advancements, and how it may be playing out today very slowly, but surely.

©2023 Ivan Illan and Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®)

https://www.alignewealth.com/

In this episode I talk about the recent US government debt downgrade by Fitch, why it happened, why it's not a big surprise, and what it might mean for everyone going forward.

© 2023 Ivan Illan, AWAIM®