ECNFIN

This is the forecast of the S&P 500 Index for 1Q 2023. It is based on the linear regression model, where I use the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to predict the value of the S&P 500 Index. This forecast tries... Read More ›

It is a combination of multiple negative factors that creates a worrisome diagnosis for already fragile economic health of the US economy. A sharp increase in oil prices from $22 in April 2020 to $120 in June 2022. The highest... Read More ›

Inflationary pressures are becoming less transitory and more long-lasting. Even before the horrific events in Ukraine, inflation was already very high. Additional sanctions on Russia added additional fuel to the fire of already hot inflation. Sanctions on Russia will also... Read More ›

This is the forecast of the S&P 500 Index for the 1Q 2022. It is based on the linear regression model where I use the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to predict the value of the S&P 500 Index. This forecast... Read More ›

The fifteen investing principles create the foundation of investing. Before you go on to build your wealth castle, you need to understand how to build a strong foundation. This is the starting point of your investing journey. The learning process of being a successful investor only starts here and continues through your life

Oftentimes a successful investing requires the time commitment, ability, and wiliness to take risk. When it comes to the real life, very few investors have the luxury and wiliness to meet these conditions to become successful. In this paper, I analyze the stock market risk and highlight difficulties to remain calm and rational during volatile times. For risk averse investors, one of the solutions is to have a diversified portfolio. The simple 50/50 asset allocation strategy combines a broadly diversified equity index with long-term government bonds. It is one example of a simple diversification strategy.

President elect Joe Biden nominated Janet Yellen as the 78th United States secretary of the treasury. In my opinion, Janet Yellen will support aggressive fiscal stimulus of the US economy at the beginning of her new job.

How much will the stock market return in 2021? Is the stock market cheap or expensive?

Does it make sense to invest in government bonds now? Current valuation of government bonds became expensive. In this paper, I compare the total return on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (ticker TLT) with the real yield on the 10-year US treasury bonds. By investing in the long-term US government bonds when the real rates are negative, makes such investment speculative and risky.

How did various stock markets around the world weather the Covid-19 pandemic? The degree of the stock market correction and recovery was different from one country to another.