Hotel Analyst Podcast

Ahead of the Annual Hotel Conference in Manchester, we welcome Joe Stather of Questex to discuss findings of Questex's latest quarterly investor sentiment survey; moderating demand, a withering tailwind as business demand starts to level off, and investors still staring at the bid-ask spread and wondering at what price they can get back into the market. The Annual Hotel Conference takes place in Manchester 11-12 September.

Big guns Accor and Hilton delivered strong Q2 figures, but the market prefers Hilton shares to those from Accor right now. India looks a stronger medium term opportunity than China, and its ITC brand is now emerging from its conglomerate parent. And in China, H World’s results reveal a strong snap back in occupancy, as Wyndham, too, likes the look of further growth in the country.

Deal volumes more than halved in the first half of 2023, as investors got their heads around rising debt costs - and owners resisted selling as they carried on trading positively. But things may pick up in the second half. Data from Booking.com and Amadeus point to a continuing strong 2023 for trading, well ahead of previous expectations. And we walk through the first half year results, from Scandinavian groups Pandox and Scandic.

Accor continues to reinvent itself as a lifestyle and luxury player. But why is it not shouting louder about its successful and dominant economy brands? Debt is getting more expensive, with refinancing tougher to negotiate - what will be the impact on the hotel sector? And experiences, hospitality and leisure increase their presence in former retail spaces, helping to reinvent town and city centres.

Is the glass half empty, or half full? A quick debate over the latest views of the UK hotel market, as investors adjust to the new normal - and wonder about upping their activity once more. Alternatives are thriving, notably hostels - so why are these businesses still largely the preserve of private equity? And as the Chinese get out and about once more, how will this massive tourism market spread around the world, after the pandemic?

Tougher lending conditions are forcing mid market hotel groups to dispose of individual properties, to buttress balance sheets ahead of refinancing discussions. With Travelodge and Village Hotels now quietly being offered for sale, who has deep pockets and a strong constitution? And new arrivals in the OTA space promise hard-up consumers a better deal, often on a subscription-only basis.

As we’re told investors are lining up to put funds into co-living developments, how big could this niche be? Or is it simply a stop-gap solution to a broader housing market failure? Airlines have struggled to get back in the air, but now they’re making money - and, like hotels, wondering how to deliver real value to the consumer. And as more companies commit to going green, the space remains a complex one with few absolute metrics, fast changing technology - and a fair dose of greenwash, too.

Rumours swirl around a possible merger of Choice and Wyndham. Hotels wrestle with how to do wellness properly, and profitably. And consumers want more personalisation - how can hotels tackle the challenge successfully?

Picking apart views from the Berlin conference - optimistic overall, but aware of debt challenges ahead. Federico Gonzalez takes a second job, heading Louvre as well as Radisson - what’s he likely to do with Jin Jiang’s big Western investments? And economy secctor operators Travelodge and Motel One shine a light on the resilience of the low cost operators.

Everyone in investment is adapting to the new normal of inflation, and debt that’s more expensive, and harder to find. India, as it becomes the world’s most populous country, looks an increasingly interesting market for both domestic hotel groups and international brands. And market newcomers Soho House, Sonder and Selina display contrasting roadmaps to profitability.