Economics & Country Risk | An S&P Global Market Intelligence Podcast

Political change is coming to South and Southeast Asia. Elections have concluded this year in the Maldives and Thailand, and are scheduled to take place in Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, and Indonesia in the next year. With these elections comes the potential for sweeping policy changes and government instability. What forces will shape this new political order? Where are we likely to see the greatest shift in policy direction? And how will these new governments interact with their neighbors and the wider world? Featured experts:
Aries Poon , Head of Asia Pacific Insights and Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/contributors/1446418/aries-poon Deepa Kumar , Head of Asia Pacific Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/kumar-deepa.html Hannah Cotillon , Senior South Asia Country Risk Analyst, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/cotillon-hannah.html Anton Alifandi , Lead ASEAN Country Risk Analyst, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/alifandi-anton.html Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/ Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

Our forecast for US holiday sales is looking "delightfully average," according to Michael Zdinak, director, US economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence. Consumer spending has shown resilience to tightening financial conditions, thanks to a strong labor market and rising wages. Banks, meanwhile, are eyeing deposit levels and delinquencies as interest rates have crept higher and inflation persists. Delinquencies are rising — but from historically low rates, said Nathan Stovall, director of financial institutions research at S&P Global Market Intelligence and host of the Street Talk podcast. Listen to Michael and Nathan talk about how the outlook for US holiday spending is likely to impact banks, retailers, the economy, and the Fed's next move. Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/ Featured experts: Michael Zdinak, director, US economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence Nathan Stovall, director of financial institutions research, S&P Global Market Intelligence

The supply chain story of 2023 so far has been one of normalization. Demand has slowed down with U. S. seaborne imports of consumer goods falling in the first eight months of the year. The seasonality of shipping patterns also appears to be returning to normal and global trade activity is likely to stabilize.

But as ever, we see risks on the horizon. Trade policies are becoming more restrictive and sustainability policies are starting to have real consequences for supply chains. Water stress and labor action also threaten supply chain stability.

What is driving the return to normal in supply chains? What strategies are companies exploring to build resilience?

Featured expert:

Chris Rogers, head of supply chain research, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/rogers-chris.html

Russia's economy seemed to show remarkable resilience in the face of waves of sanctions that followed its invasion of Ukraine. But recently the bank of Russia had to take steps to shore up a weakening ruble.

Are the sanctions finally biting? And how much of a bite would it take to get Russia to the negotiating table?

We discuss what has supported Russia's economy during wartime, shifts in trade routes, currency effects, and our near-term outlook.

Featured expert:

Lilit Gevorgyan, Associate Director, Europe and CIS Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/gevorgyan-lilit.html Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts here: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

The US market for home improvement was at an all-time high during the pandemic when many people were forced to live, work, and educate their children under the same roof. That demand disrupted supply chains for labor and materials and drove price inflation for lumber and other goods. This year the market looks different, thanks to higher interest rates on home improvement loans, reduced availability of homes to buy, and new incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act. Find out how the pro and DIY segments are faring and learn what energy-saving projects homeowners are likely to prioritize in 2023 and beyond. Featured expert:

Scott Hazelton, director, consulting, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/index.html

2023 has delivered some extreme weather, from extreme heat in Southern Europe to a dry spell that affected crop yields in Southeast Asia and Australia, often with tragic human consequences. Extreme weather events like droughts and floods also present risks to economies and supply chains. For example, the level of the Rhine River in Europe can impact the transportation of a range of raw materials, rippling through to industrial performance. Our Purchasing Managers' Index and other survey data can pick up this impact, helping to assess behavioral changes as nations transition to greener and more efficient forms of energy. Our PMI economists share the signals they see in the data and how they provide insights into over 40 countries and regions around the world. Featured experts: Paul Smith ,Director, Economic Indices, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/smith-paul.html Andrew Harker , Director, Economic Indicators & Surveys, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/harker-andrew.html Phil Smith , Economics Associate Director,Economic Indicators & Surveys, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/smith-phil.html Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts here: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

We all think of emissions when we’re stuck in traffic, cars idling all around us. But how many of us think of ships waiting to get into busy ports? We may be stuck in road traffic for an hour, but ships can be waiting many hours to enter a port, generating emissions all the while. What is the shipping industry doing to manage these wait times and get closer to their emissions targets — and save money in the process? Featured expert:
Turloch Mooney , director, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/mooney-turloch.html

South Africa hosted this year’s heads of state summit for the BRICS countries — Brazil, Russia, India, and mainland China along with South Africa. The alliance admitted Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates as members from January 2024. And there’s an indication of future expansion as well.

What's the reasoning behind the expansion, and why are these countries eager to join?

Featured expert:

Lange Malimela, head of Country Risk for sub-Saharan Africa at S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/malimela-langelihle.html

Sub-Saharan Africa has a potentially important role to play in the global supply chain of critical minerals, having very sizeable reserves of minerals needed for the green economy transition.

Development of extractive industries on the continent is often constrained by weak infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, and narrow financial markets. The increasing scrutiny over the compliance with environmental, social, and governance standards also poses challenges.

We explore these challenges and opportunities and share insights from our recent analysis.

Featured experts:

Alisa Strobel, Senior Economist, Sub-Saharan Africa, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/strobel-alisa.html

Thea Fourie, Director for Sub-Saharan Africa Economics and Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/fourie-thea.html

Langelihle Malimela, Head of Sub-Saharan Africa Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/malimela-langelihle.html

Archbold Macheka, Senior Economist, Sub-Saharan Africa, S&P Global Market Intelligence

Roughly 18 months ago, Russia invaded Ukraine, sending shock waves through financial and commodities markets.

Since then, we've seen rounds of sanctions from the US and EU, an expansion of NATO, and an attempted mutiny in Russia. Still, the war grinds on.

How long is the conflict likely to last? What risk factors could influence its trajectory? We discuss our recent report on the outlook for the war.

Featured expert:

Alex Kokcharov, Associate Director, Country Risk, Europe and CIS
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/kokcharov-alex.html