Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

Today’s episode subject is in response to popular demand. Whether at work or at home, concerns on cybersecurity are elevated to say the least. Nicolas Reys, Partner leading Control Risks’ Digital Risks Americas and Global Threat Intelligence practices, begins by going the three kinds of cyberthreats out there—state sponsored, ransomware, and “hactivism.” We then talk about the impact of recent geopolitical developments on the cybersecurity environment. Singapore’s population and firms continue to face cyberattacks, from scams to phishing, but Nic sees substantial awareness and policy guardrails available to mitigate risks here. We talk about frontier tech like GenAI and quantum computing, and their potential disrupting impact on cybersecurity. We end with Nic laying out the best practice corporate strategies to manage digital risks.

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Martin Mühleisen, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, returns to Kopi Time to talk about the state of multilateralism. He sees the recent IMF meetings marked by modest progress in securing greater funding for development and climate change, but much more remains to be done to give developing nations their requisite voice in global bodies. On issues such as supply chain resiliency and domestic market protection, nations around the world are undertaking a variety of interventions, which may be understandable given the pandemic shock and geopolitics. Yet, they create risks for inflation, and add layers of inefficiency and distortion. Martin weighs in on US fiscal, Japan’s monetary policy, and Europe’s difficulties with the war in Ukraine and China-US friction. We round up the discussion with how to keep multilateral institutions like the IMF maintain their relevance in this multipolar world.

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We catch up in Washington DC with Dr. Alexis Crow, lead, Global Geopolitical Investing Practice, pwc. Recorded on the last day of the IMF-World Bank 2024 spring meetings, we go over the key takeaways from our interactions with policy makers and analysts. From a mild upgrade in global growth forecasts to taking stock of the scarring of the pandemic, there was a sense of cautious optimism during the meetings. Ongoing geopolitical strife of course remained a shadow, and concerns were expressed on the impact of lingering high interest rates on various economies and markets. China-US tussle over economic overcapacity and industrial policy looks likely to intensify, although there has been a welcome rise in engagement between the world’s two largest economies. We also discuss the latest deliberations on AI, climate change, and sticky inflation.

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Henny Sender, after several decades of writing on international finance for the Finance Times and Wall Street Journal, presently runs Apsara Advisory, a New York-based consultancy. She joins Kopi Time to talk about her sense of the challenges facing the Chinese economy, especially the weakness in consumer sentiment. While recognising the wisdom behind self-reliance and trade openness, Henny flags several areas of concern, including property and stock market woes, as well as regulatory overhang. On Hong Kong, where she has lived for many years, Henny is blunt in her assessment. She sees substantial room available for the public sector to address affordable housing, an issue that is at the heart of the city’s competitiveness. On India, Henny sees a welcome rise in aspiration and optimism. She would however like to see more efforts to scale up manufacturing, address climate risks, and reduce protectionism for local industries.

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Angela Mancini, Partner and Head of the Geopolitical Risk Analysis practice for Asia Pacific at Control Risks, returns to Kopi Time after four years. The issues haven’t changed that much in the interim—we talk about Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore’s elections and economic prospects, state of China-US friction in the context of business risks, and the domestic dynamics at play in the US. Angela provides astute insights and some prognostications as we cover an extensive ground, including the likely outcome of the US Presidential race.

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Bert Hofman, adjunct Professor at the East Asian Institute at National University of Singapore, returns to Kopi Time to comment on the National People’s Congress of China and the direction of policy in the coming years. We also talk about the property sector crisis, ways to revive business and consumer confidence, deflation risks, green transition, trade and tech war, and industrial policy. Bert also has interesting insights on the preference of the Chinese leadership in dealing with a Biden or Trump presidency. Worth a listen.

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We welcome back Munib Madni, CEO of Singapore-based Panarchy Partners, a fund management company with responsible investing at its core.In this chat, Munib talks about latest developments and trends in the world of climate impact investing, while pointing out a gap in the current scene. Munib sees many listed equity companies setting laudable goals to reduce emission, but lacking the “how" about achieving those goals. This is where the newly established Gigaton Coalition comes in. It is an investor-investee led expert management platform for decarbonization solutions. As the name suggests, it aims to deliver at least 1 gigaton of cumulus emissions savingsover the next decade frompublicly listed companies in Asia Pacific. We discuss how the coalition would work, what would motivate institutional investors and companies to join it, and where Munib sees the initiative standing at the end of 2025. This is real work for real change.

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We explore the present state of digital payments, their impact and potential, and tech-enabled investment platforms with Caeser Sengupta, CEO and co-founder of Arta Finance. Previously, Caeser spent a number of years at Google as VP & GM of Payments & the Next Billion Users initiative. In this podcast, we begin by discussing the economic and social welfare benefits derived from the digital payments revolution of the past decade. Caeser walks us through the fundamental changes in the way business and commerce are conducted in Brazil, China, India, and elsewhere, thanks to the development in mobile payments and near-instantaneous settlements. We talk about the broader ecosystem, including the potential of super apps, safety/security, role of regulators, central bank digital money, and of course, crypto/blockchain. We then shift to Caeser’s ongoing foray into creating a platform for wealth management, with enhanced customer experience and capabilities. The intersection of digital literacy and financial literacy has still plenty of room for disruption and value creation.

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Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, a Singapore-based provider of intelligence on energy markets, returns to Kopi Time. She was with us in the early days of the podcast, when WTI futures was in negative territory, and then returned around the time of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Today, again, energy markets have no shortage of drama. Vandana begins by addressing various scenarios over the brewing tensions in the Red Sea, especially for shipping and oil price risk premium. She also details the perverse dynamics around Russia’s energy supplies and various unintended consequences. Beyond geopolitics, she looks at the rather underwhelming supply-demand fundamentals characterising energy markets. We then talk about the future of OPEC+, state of US Shale sector, and the medium term demand for fossil fuels against green transition. Vanda offers an astute blend of industry insights and the complex realities in place.

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We do a US market wrap-up for 2023 and outlook for 2024 with our favourite strategist, Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar. No stranger to Kopi Time, Sri is blunt and prescient in his views across asset classes, fiscal and monetary policies, politics, economic growth, and inflation. We discuss the various prevalent and potential sources of market volatility, direction of the US Fed and treasury, path for inflation, rate cuts, and eventual QE next year, and the outlook for credit markets. Sri worries about the health of the US bank and nonbank financial system as the economy slows. He is also quite clear about the distinction the markets make about US assets and US policy. In most countries, outlook for one determines the outlook for the other. But the US remains blessed with certain superpower and mega-market size privileges that allow it to avoid some of these issues, at least in the near term.

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