NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 15th May 2024

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US CPI came in broadly as expected overnight, but the markets reacted anyway. Perhaps they feared another upside surprise. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the slowdown in retail numbers also raised expectations slightly that the Fed will squeeze in two rate cuts before the year is out. But what about the RBA? The wages data yesterday was helpful, but not enough to move the goal posts. What about the employment numbers today?

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Wednesday 15th May 2024

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Markets are waiting for US CPI later today. There was some market reaction to he producer price numbers from the US, which NAB’s Gavin Friend described as sticker shock. The core number for April was higher than expected, but markets quickly retraced steps when the March number was revised down. In short, not such a big move after all. UK employment numbers were a little stronger than expected in March, along with wages data. Australia gets its wage inflation data today, as markets come to terms with last night’s Federal Budget. 

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Tuesday 14th May 2024

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It is of course, budget day in Australia today. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says government subsidies will help bring headline inflation down, but the rise in household spending could delay the slowdown in the underlying inflation rate. The speed at which inflation will fall continues to be the question on everyone’s lips around the world. For the US the PPI (producer prices index) will be watched keenly because it feeds through directly to the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. CPI numbers tomorrow will add to the picture. The UK’s employment and wages data today will show whether the upside surprise in GDP in the last quarter is being reflected in the labour market, which could also delay the slowdown in inflation.

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Monday 13th May 2024

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There were a few signs that inflation globally might be taking longer to fall. Canada’s surprise employment numbers pushed yields higher, and the UKs CPI was an upside surprise on Friday as well. Consumer inflation expectations in the US also came in higher. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says al these factors could push back rate cuts a little further. And what about locally? What is the potential impact of more government spending and wage increases in the budget tomorrow? Meanwhile, demand is more of an issue for China than inflation. Aggregate financing fell for the first time in 20 years and Joe Biden is expected to announce a 100% tariff on Chinese EV imports this week.

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Friday 10th May 2024

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Productivity gains have been slipping, not just in Australia, but around the world. The problem locally is accentuated by the shift away from a heavily automated resources sector, where significant value is added per employee. If we can’t manage the same level of efficiency as we switch to more labour-intensive output, particularly in the services sector, should we assume that productivity growth will not return to pre-pandemic levels. It’s a question Phil puts to Danielle Wood, chair of the Productivity Commission. They discuss what is being done to fix Australia’s productivity shortfall and what can we learn from countries where productivity is higher.

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Friday 10th May 2024

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There wasn’t much market reaction as the Bank of England kept rates on hold but said what many already knew, that they will have to cut rates in the coming months. The ECB seems wedded to the idea of a June cut, with the accounts of their last meeting out today, but there is some speculation about how quickly they will follow through. Canada’s unemployment is expected to tick higher, adding pressure for a rate cut there although, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, it’s wage inflation that really counts. The UK is expected to see GDP return to positive territory today, and China’s PPI and CPI numbers are out over the weekend. 

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Thursday 9th May 2024

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There wasn’t any tier one data overnight to give markets any clear direction. You could say there was an air of subduedness. The Riksbank cut rates, as suggested yesterday, but one ECB member is concerned that going too early, against a Fed that keeps rates on hold longer, could drive the Euro lower and add to inflation concerns. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the problem emerges after one or two cuts, alongside a Fed that’s not moving. So what’s the Bank of England’s strategy? August seems the most likely month for a cut, says Gavin, but we’ll find out more at the meeting and the press conference that follows.

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Wednesday 8th May 2024

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NAB is still expecting that the RBA’s next move will be a cut in November, because yesterday’s meeting did raise the possibility of a rate hike if inflation remains too persistent. NAB’s Skye Masters says the market reaction was tame because none of this came as a surprise. We’ve known that inflation was taking time to come down, and the revisions to the RBA’s inflation forecasts yesterday simply reaffirmed that belief. Neel Kashkari from the Minneapolis Fed also spoke of the possibility of a hike if inflation and jobs remained strong. In Europe it’s a different story and there’s a real possibility that the Riksbank will cut rates today.

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Tuesday 7th May 2024

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The RBA meets today and is expected to keep rates on hold. They also release their revised inflation forecasts in the latest Statement of Monetary Policy. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there will be some market sensitivity around these numbers, as well as the press conference, although there’s a firm expectation that rates won’t budge today. There is one central bank that might cut rates this week though. Listen in for more on that, plus the hopes of a peace deal in the Middle East and a sprinkling of second tier Euro data.

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Monday 6th May 2024

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The non-farm payrolls in the US came in lower than expected, with a rise in the unemployment rate. NAAB’s Ken Crompton says we shouldn’t get too excited by the unemployment rate because it’s a small move when you take it to the second decimal place. The Services ISM was also weaker, falling into contraction territory. The impact has been to bring forward rate cut expectations a little, with a 75% chance the Fed will move in September. In Australia home loans data wasn’t particularly encouraging reading. The focus is now on the RBA tomorrow, then state budges later in the week. Will spending add to pressure on jobs, slowing the fall in inflation?

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