#hottakeoftheday

I have been trying to get Shad Frazier on the podcast for the last year. We’ve been “LinkedIn friends” for a while now, and I always find his takes thoughtful and insightful. So today, we have him! One of the posts we talk about is this one- which is Shad’s thoughtful response to a study that was released by Mark Jacobson out of Stanford University. As I discussed with Robert Bryce last week, and do again with Shad this week, there are so many flaws in the models that project we can get to net zero in any realistic way. In the meantime, here’s Shad’s post on it. I hope you enjoy the episode. "Lies travel faster than the truth" Thomas Shelby An article in the Washington Post today based upon a scientific simulation completed by Stanford says that we could replace all fossil fuels with Wind, Solar, and water energy and reduce our power consumption at the same time. I wonder if we have lost our understanding of the scientific method. We have a higher learning institution that built a model based upon facts that they knew but didn't understand the energy chain or the efficiency loss of the electrical market. Did they start with the answer they wanted and work backward till they got a model to solve their problem? Stanford Modeled the storm URI of 2021 and said we could have gone through URI if we just pushed for more renewables. In 2021 ERCOT the Texas grid added 8000 MW of new power generation 40.8% wind and 35.6% solar. The problem still stems from that during URI, wind and solar only made up less than 10% of the power generated when we needed it most. So how does Stanford say we fix that issue? We have to build home power storage. So their solution to the problem is that we need more batteries in everyone's homes. When unreliable power like solar and wind don't work, we can pull off a battery for our power off of home solar panels. This stored power will reduce our electricity demand in our homes and cause the need for energy to decrease. Here is a real-world example of this case. Each home would need 6x400W panels to charge an electric car each night to drive just 30 miles the next day. That is to charge one electric vehicle. To charge two cars, we need 12 panels. Then the mean home would need another four panels to run the house. So now we need 16 panels. That is a cost of $64,000 to electrify each home in the US. Converting that current gasoline and grid power price based upon national averages, the average us home pays $8.62/day to power their home and drive their car each day. (Gas usage is total gas used per day versus cars or 337 B gals/286 B Cars or 1.17 gals per day, Home power is estimated at $117/Month per us home) It takes 7400 days to pay for the solar panels, and another 1200 days to pay for the battery in the home or 23.5 Years. If we converted everyone over to solar and wind today, it would payout by almost 2050. Who likes that type of ROR. Not to mention the space needed to build those solar panels on homes in big cities with large apartment buildings. Science is wonderful, but reality and science have to work together to bring truth to light.  

This week, I welcome back Robert Bryce, the author of ‘A Question of Power’, the producer of the movie ‘Juiced’ on Amazon, and frequent contributor to Forbes. We talk all things energy: The European crisis, Russia, nukes, domestic energy policy, the latest with ERCOT and more. As energy policy becomes more than an abstract concept in many American’s minds with gas surpassing $5/gallon in parts of the country, this is a key episode to share with your friends who have legitimate questions about why we are here and what comes next.  

In 2018, after proposition 112 was defeated in Colorado, a ballot measure that would have changed setbacks to 2500’ for all oil and gas development, I thought defeat would put a pin in the issue for a while. It didn’t. Despite overwhelming majority support in places like Weld county where the drilling activity actually occurs, opposition in Denver, Boulder and Aspen (who have slightly more than a 2500’ setback to any oil and gas development) drove Senate Bill 181. Passed under the cover of snowfall with out even attempting to make it look like anyone with experience was consulted, SB181 did what prop 112 intended to do and much more, including reshaping the Oil and Gas commission. The results have been to create a wasteland of an investment climate for oil and gas in Colorado. From mandating Colorado to produce 85% of its electricity carbon free by 2030 (not possible) to hindering development of already the most regulated and cleanest oil and gas production in the country and allowing utilities to substantially increase rates electricity consumers pay, I strongly believe the State needs a new energy policy. That can only come with new leadership. When I first met Heidi Ganahl, I knew she was having a campaign event at the Wide Open Saloon. As I would do, I drove down specifically to shake her hand in the 5 minutes (2 hour round trip drive though) I had before Andrew’s hockey game. 2020 showed me that we can’t complain about policies - any policies - if we don’t get involved. And so, here I am. Involved.   So this week, I invited Heidi on the podcast to discuss her candidacy, her background as an entrepreneur and hear about how she would help take Colorado in a different direction. If you’d like to meet her, we are holding a small fundraiser for her March 9th and there are limited spaces left. You can RSVP here and I’d love to see you there. https://www.heidiforgovernor.com/event-castlerock/ To learn more, visit: https://www.heidiforgovernor.com/ I hope you enjoy our conversation.   Full disclosure: I am a contributor to the campaign.

I first met Doug Sandridge a year or so ago. He was giving a talk to the DAPL about the challenges to the energy transition. There are a lot of them and Doug did what Doug does, he researched them all. Our chat, his presentation and his work teaching at OU draw on that research and he carefully and meticulously investigates each challenge. This week, the HTOTDPodcast goes Joe Rogan style (2 hours and 30 minutes!) and we talk about it all the issues in depth. Doug identifies 7 challenges for the energy transition and we dive deep. I’ve enjoyed becoming friends with Doug and his excitement his evident when we dive in. There are real challenges to talk about - let’s get started.

In honor of Zoom falling 15% as a reminder “people do go on living despite the best wishes of politicians”, we are bringing back the 15 minute #hottakeoveryourcommute! Too bad all that oil from the SPR will just be sold to China and India since we don’t use the grade we are selling.

We had a lot of fun at the Hitachi Vantara Topgolf event in Houston tonight. Thank you to everyone who attended! As an aside, I have to say in an unpaid promotions, if you haven’t done Topgolf, even if you aren’t a golfer, you are really missing out! It’s a brilliant concept and as a golfer, the good news is when your colleagues tire of beating balls down the range, well… it’s the most practice I’ve done in a month! Now… to the podcast I recorded last week with Kimberley Reid. I have to honestly say, having never met her before the interview, I genuinely like her so much. Kimberley is our SAP guru and an engineer, and worked in a chemical plant to start her career. It’s a unique background from which to become an SAP guru. But that’s not why I interviewed her. We talk about career pivots, about positivity in life and in work, and…. let’s get the elephant on the table: her unique and wonderful voice. She is a character actor for vocals in cartoons, and her thoughts, comments and approach on “being unique” are truly something you don’t want to miss. And I thought “Ramsden-Wood” made me memorable. Not even close. I hope you enjoy because I know I did.

It had been a hot minute since we had Mark Rossano on to talk data and with unemployment at 5.9%, inflation being called transitory and the federal reserve meeting this week with the debt ceiling looming …. I thought it was time we get an update. As always, we cover a lot. Because data is good, interpretation is better. I hope you enjoy.