SIACharts' Paul Kornfeld - Buy the dip, or sell the rip? Are we at a turning point?

In this episode with SIACharts' President, Paul Kornfeld, we kick off our conversation with the recent changes in the Federal Reserve's rate cut projections and the performance of various stocks. We question whether it's a good time to 'buy the dip or sell the rip.' We get into the use of SIA charts in analyzing market trends and making investment decisions. What are the benefits of using a systematic approach and relative strength analysis? We touch on the challenges and opportunities of 24/7 trading, and the pressure that's mounting for moneycenter banks. We dive into the importance of having a rules-based approach and risk management in investing. We discuss the opportunities and risks in the market, and in particular the generational opportunity in the energy and materials sectors. Wending our way through the conversation, Paul peels back the layers on the importance of diversification and the need to consider the opportunity cost of investing in certain sectors. There's also the potential impact of various serious geopolitical events on international markets to weigh and the importance of incorporating risk management strategies, now. What has been the historical performance of different sectors and how great is the potential for a shift in market dynamics. What is the market indicating are trends to follow in specific sectors? What is the potential impact of inflation on portfolios and how great is the need to consider alternative asset classes?

<h3>Takeaways</h3>

<ul>

<li>The Federal Reserve's rate cut projections have been revised, leading to uncertainty in the market.</li>

<li>Using SIA charts and a systematic approach can help investors analyze market trends and make informed investment decisions.</li>

<li>24/7 trading presents both opportunities and challenges for investors, and risk management is crucial in navigating the market.</li>

<li>Money center banks are facing pressure due to rising interest rates, and it's important to monitor their performance.</li>

<li>Having a rules-based approach and discipline in investing can help mitigate emotional biases and improve investment outcomes.</li>

<li>There are opportunities for profitability in sectors like energy and materials</li>

<li>Diversification is important to mitigate risk and take advantage of different market opportunities.</li>

<li>Consider the opportunity cost of investing in certain sectors and evaluate the potential for higher profitability in other areas.</li>

<li>Geopolitical events can have a significant impact on international markets, and it's important to monitor and adjust investment strategies accordingly.</li>

<li>Incorporating risk management strategies is crucial to protect portfolios during market fluctuations.</li>

<li>The historical performance of different sectors can provide insights into potential future trends and opportunities in the market. Diversification and following trends in specific sectors can provide opportunities in the current market environment.</li>

<li>Inflation is expected to remain sticky, and portfolios need to consider alternative asset classes to fill the void left by bonds.</li>

<li>SIACharts is a tool that simplifies research and provides actionable insights for advisors.</li>

</ul>

Toby Carlisle - Value Investing is Simple, Not Easy

In this conversation, Mike and Pierre talk to Tobias Carlisle, Managing Principal and Chief Investment Officer at Acquirers Funds, LLC, and portfolio manager of ZIG and DEEP ETFs. Toby shares his approach to value investing and the historical perspective he brings to the art of investing. He also talks about the performance of value investing and the importance of staying consistent with your strategy. Our conversation highlights the benefits of a systematic and quantitative approach to investing. We explore the challenges and strategies of value investing. Toby emphasizes the importance of having a systematic design and sticking to a set of rules to avoid emotional and behavioral mistakes. We discuss the ideological debate between value and growth investing and the need for a balanced approach. Our conversation turns to the role of activism in value investing and the importance of avoiding ruin and focusing on survival. The conversation continues with Toby sharing his insights into portfolio construction and the baked-in returns of value investing. We further explore the concept of investing in value stocks and the challenges that come with it – the importance of considering the long-term perspective and the potential for high returns despite short-term fluctuations. Mike and Toby deconstruct the role of market feedback loops and the impact of market crashes on investment strategies. Toby highlights the significance of character and reputation in investing. We ask Toby about his upcoming book 'Invincible' and its exploration of the parallels between value investing, Sun Tzu's 'Art of War,' and Lao Tzu's 'Tao Te Ching.'

Aubrey Basdeo: More Coupon, Less Duration

In this episode, our conversation with Aubrey Basdeo, Head of Fixed Income at Guardian Capital LP, we focus on the fixed income landscape and the outlook for interest rates in the US and Canada, the Federal Reserve's approach to inflation and interest rate cuts, as well as the differences between the US and Canadian economies, the impact of mortgage rates on consumer spending and the potential for rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. Overall, the conversation highlights the importance of maximizing optionality and the challenges of monetary policy in a changing economic environment, various topics related to central banks, portfolio construction, and fixed income investing. Our main themes include the shift in central bank narratives, the impact of inflation on monetary policy, the changing dynamics of portfolio construction, the shifting climate in holding duration for the sake of hedging portfolios, and the critical importance of using active management in fixed income. Our conversation also touches lightheartedly on the challenges faced by different generations in the current economic environment.

Timestamped Highlights:

00:00 Maximizing Optionality: The Federal Reserve's Approach to Interest Rate Cuts

12:10 US Exceptionalism: Strong Growth and Pro-Growth Policies

15:55 Challenges in the Canadian Economy: Higher Mortgage Rates and Slower Job Growth

17:54 American homeowners have tax deduction advantage.

21:16 Bank of Canada needs to pivot on inflation.

24:32 Bond market optimism can spell consumer pessimism.

26:43 Bank of Canada rate likely to rise.

32:32 Portfolio construction shifting due to global changes.

35:26 Hedging portfolio with fixed income shifted focus.

40:24 Fed should be less restrictive, economy speed-dependent.

43:20 Bank of Canada will ease rates moderately.

48:29 Central banks shift risk approach, requiring active management.

50:45 Focus on coupon, not duration, for returns.

54:12 Economic growth needs younger population to sustain.

"The mistake is that if they're going to make a mistake, it's that they're going to be focused on that two number (~2% neutral rate) and insist that they need to get to that, rather than you're on that trajectory towards two and you can start to ease at that point."

"The world that we're entering into in terms of how things are going to, the factors that we're gonna be reacting to are going to be different from those factors that guided portfolio construction for the past 30 years."

"If you're looking for duration as the hedge to the portfolio, that's not going to provide it in the same way that it did 10 years ago."

Takeaways

• The Federal Reserve is aiming to maximize optionality in its approach to interest rate cuts, with the possibility of three cuts, two cuts, or no cuts depending on the evolution of inflation and the economy.

• The US economy is showing signs of exceptionalism, with strong growth and pro-growth policies driving the outlook for interest rates. In contrast, Europe and China are facing slower growth and export-driven challenges.

• The Bank of Canada is expected to ease interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve, as the Canadian economy faces challenges from higher mortgage rates and slower job growth.

• The impact of mortgage rates on consumer spending differs between the US and Canada, with American homeowners benefiting from tax deductions and longer-term mortgages.

• Bond investors are optimistic about the potential for rate cuts, while consumers may be more pessimistic due to the potential impact on disposable income.

• The Bank of Canada will need to carefully navigate the path of easing, considering the impact on inflation, the interest rate differential with the US, and the potential depreciation of the Canadian dollar. Central banks may shift their narrative from targeting a specific inflation number to being less restrictive in their policies.

• Portfolio construction needs to adapt to a changing economic environment and regime shift.

• Duration may no longer provide the same level of protection in portfolios as it did in the past.

• Investors should focus on the belly of the yield curve for fixed income exposure.

• Active management is crucial in navigating the risks and opportunities in the fixed income market.

• The current economic environment has different implications for different generations.

Copyright © AdvisorAnalyst.com

Doomberg Decodes: Pumpamentals, Market Riddles, Energy, Gold/China, Uranium &amp; Canada

In this conversation, Doomberg (https://doomberg.substack.com/) joins Pierre and Mike to discuss various topics including Bitcoin, the parallel between Michael Saylor and Hugo Stinnes, speculative mania, the parallels in the borrowing strategy of Hugo Stinnes and Michael Saylor, the pumpamentals driving distortions in the market and the flywheel effect, the geopolitical implications of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the dangers of do-gooders and climate newspeak, and the natural gas situation and its unexpected impact on the economy.

The conversation covers various topics related to the resource and wealth potential of Canada and the US, the prolific natural gas development in the US, the strength of the US economy, Mexico's hidden benefit from natural gas, the importance of secure borders, the economic boom in northern Mexico, the inconsistency of border security measures, the price discrepancy between natural gas and oil, the impact of natural gas prices on the economy, the role of natural gas in manufacturing, the implications of the Tonga eruption, the debate on climate change and carbon emissions, the potential consequences of sanctions on Russia, the capabilities of Russia, China, and India, the dangers of provoking Russia, the dangers of provoking Iran, the rise of nuclear power and gold, the 'Prime' time data center and the future of energy, and the importance of nuclear power for the AI revolution.

Takeaways

- Michael Saylor's bet on Bitcoin has paid off, demonstrating the potential of high volatility assets.

- Speculative manias often precede currency debasements, making Bitcoin and crypto of interest.

- The borrowing strategy of Hugo Stinnes (WWI) and Michael Saylor (today) highlights the importance of real assets.

- Pumpamentals and the flywheel effect can create market distortions and lead to irrational behavior.

- The Russia-Ukraine conflict and geopolitical tensions have significant implications for energy markets.

- The dangers of do-gooders and climate newspeak can lead to the suppression of speech and the lack of trade-off discussions.

- The abundance of natural gas in North America has prevented a potential recession and supported the manufacturing and industrial sectors. Canada and the US have significant resource potential under the right leadership.

- The US is the most prolific natural gas producer in the world, with a sophisticated downstream manufacturing sector that takes advantage of cheap hydrocarbons.

- Mexico is a hidden beneficiary of the natural gas boom, with an industrial boom happening in northern Mexico powered by cheap natural gas.

- Secure borders are important for stability and economic growth.

- The price discrepancy between natural gas and oil has significant implications for the economy.

- Nuclear power and gold play important roles in the future of energy and wealth preservation.

- The AI revolution and the electrification of various industries will drive the demand for energy.

Where to find Doomberg

Doomberg on Substack

Copyright © AdvisorAnalyst.com

Bill Bamber, BMO GAM CEO: "A generational shift in accessing structured investment payoffs"

This is one of the trickiest times in investing history marked by heightened uncertainty, distorted valuations, regime change and increased volatility in both equity and bond markets. For good reason, advisors have increasingly turned to shifting parts of the portfolios they manage away from traditional equity and bond assets in return for exposure to structured note and investment strategies that provide structured investing outcomes from those same asset categories.

In this conversation with Bill Bamber, CFA, Chief Executive Officer at BMO Global Asset Management, we are treated to a behind-the-scenes look at how and why BMO GAM developed and launched its innovative Strategic Equity Yield Fund (SEYF) solution (in June 2023). What was the thinking behind innovating this?

Investors face unforeseen risks, eroded correlations, as well as unprecedented decision-making challenges due to the proliferation of choices of individual structured products in the marketplace. SEYF is an elegant, actively managed, one-ticket solution for investors, the likes of which were once only available to large institutional investors, via the capital markets desk.

We discuss the rationale and strategic thinking behind BMO GAM launching this type of actively managed capital markets-based solution for accessing the best ideas and best strategies in the structured note market, in the form of a mutual fund. Now accessible to all investors, this is a milestone unto itself, to solve what have become some quintessential problems for investors desiring structured outcome solutions for their portfolio, in an always-on, always available format.

Bill Bamber, CFA, brings 3 decades worth of expertise in the capital markets space to BMO GAM. As CEO, he is leading this drive to bring wide investor accessibility to structured capital markets investing strategies for everyday investors. This solution provides the enhanced yield plus capital appreciation potential and liquidity investors are seeking, along with the sophistication of stability, structured downside protection and price-seeking power, owing to the economies of scale of the firm’s substantial global trading operations.

Thank you for listening!

About Bill Bamber, CFA

Chief Executive Officer

BMO Global Asset Management

Bill Bamber joined BMO Wealth Management in April 2022 as Head of Synthetic Asset Management and is currently the CEO of BMO Global Asset Management. Bill has more than 30 years of experience in the Financial Services Industry, including extensive experience in International Capital Markets, most notably in exotic derivatives spanning all asset classes as well as global structuring and structured products.

Prior to joining BMO, Bill oversaw Structured Products and Quantitative Investment Strategy businesses globally and led many ground-breaking initiatives and innovative indices. He has held senior positions at International and North American financial institutions including a focus on equity derivative structuring in the Americas.

Bill is well-known as an innovator in the investment industry with an outstanding track record for product firsts around the world. This includes pioneering the world’s first Emerging Market ETF (STX40 SJ Equity) and creating the first MLP-linked security both inside (AMJ US Equity) and outside of the U.S. He was also the first to create a listed trading platform for zero-coupon South African gilts.

Bill is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and holds both a Master of Management Analytics and a Master of Business Administration from Queen’s University.