Global Data Pod cover logo

Global Data Pod Weekender: Living with higher yields

29m · Global Data Pod · 26 Apr 21:24

In contrast to past episodes of yield spikes we believe it is unlikely that the recent rise in global bond yields will be reversed as markets sustainably shift up expectations for growth and the policy rate path for 2024-25. Next week’s FOMC meeting will likely see Chair Powell back away from the current dot plot and point to June as a time for a broader reassessment of the policy path ahead.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Jay Barry

This podcast was recorded on 26 April 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The episode Global Data Pod Weekender: Living with higher yields from the podcast Global Data Pod has a duration of 29:55. It was first published 26 Apr 21:24. The cover art and the content belong to their respective owners.

More episodes from Global Data Pod

Global Data Pod: April Global Inflation Monitor

Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Global Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the latest global inflation report.

Speakers: Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Global Economist Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy

This podcast was recorded on May 29, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4710969-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: And now, a word from our PMIs

The May flash PMIs this week add to confidence that US growth is resilient and that Europe is rebounding from last year’s stall. Consumer spending is still a weak point in Europe through last quarter, but this only reinforces our view that spending will perk up. Confidence in the disinflation path still points to ECB and BoC cuts in June, while risks for the Fed and BoE are pushing further out—underscored by a warning in this week’s Fed minutes and a strong upside surprise in UK April inflation.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 24 May 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Consumer malaise and the outlook for spending

Joseph Lupton joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss recent shifts in consumer confidence, its fundamental drivers and the outlook for consumer spending. Macroeconomic fundamentals such inflation, income growth, labor markets and stock markets explain a reasonable share of movements in consumer confidence. But the latest consumer sentiment readings for DM economies broadly sit below the levels suggested by macro conditions. A decoupling of this consumer “malaise” from actual consumer behavior in the US drove an acceleration in global consumer spending last quarter. And with the latest PMI surveys indicating that the base for global growth is broadening, we expect consumer spending in a few key regional weak-spots (particularly Western Europe) to follow suit in the months ahead.

This podcast was recorded on May 22, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4691534-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Keep hope alive

A good week for data delivers some relief on inflation and points to some moderation in growth, both of which are needed to keep central banks on the path toward easing. However, with inflation still elevated and labor markets still hot, more will be needed to put us back on the path to a soft-landing. Easing financial conditions could be too much of a good thing, short-circuiting the journey.

This podcast was recorded on 17 May 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod EM Edge: The Africa story that you have missed

Africa Edge stands out with best primary balance position across frontiers recorded last year. And economies in Africa have improved their primary balance positions in a significant manner in recent years, a trend that we expect to continue. This has been largely on the back of IMF-led reforms, but higher oil prices also helped.

This podcast was recorded on 15 May 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4689232-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Every Podcast » Global Data Pod » Global Data Pod Weekender: Living with higher yields