Forstrong Macro Update with Franklin Templeton

2024’s Rotation Trade Continues

Looking back on the month of April, it was a tough time for many investors. Broadly, many stock market sectors broke their winning streak. Bonds didn’t fare any better as continued strong global economic data pressured long-term yields higher.

As the macro regime continues to unfold, Forstrong’s investment team continues to believe the world is transitioning toward an inflationary boom. Increased volatility is a key tenet of this shifting economic landscape. But the theme of broadening performance (away from the handful of US mega-cap stocks which carried markets last year) is alive and well. In April, commodity-sensitive exposures and emerging markets equities staged impressive rallies.

In this episode, Rob sits down with Forstrong Lead PM, David Kletz, to unpack these latest development. They also dive into why an improving outlook in emerging markets could lead to outsized returns this year.

Global Thinking Podcast

Forstrong Insights

Ask Forstrong: A Broadening Bull Market?

Forstrong Dashboard: Breaking Breadth

Forstrong 5 Minute Macro: A Broadening Bull Market?

Forstrong Rebalance Summary: Q2 2024

Invest in Forstrong ETFs

Is US equity still the easiest asset allocation decision?

US equities have taken center stage over the last few years and are touching all-time highs as consumers continue to show strength with healthy balance sheets and less sensitivity to higher interest rates. But is all this good news already priced in?

What may be surprising is that returns are no longer being powered primarily by the “Magnificent 7”. Instead, forgotten and unloved sectors are now witnessing a steady bid.

In this episode Rob sits with BMO’s Chief Investment Officer, Sadiq Adatia, to talk about their recent market outlook and why they believe a broadening market rally is in the cards for 2024. While high quality and financials in the US are in focus, gold and commodity-oriented equities could see a continuation of strength.

Global Thinking Podcast

Forstrong Insights

Ask Forstrong: A Broadening Bull Market?

Forstrong Dashboard: Breaking Breadth

Forstrong 5 Minute Macro: A Broadening Bull Market?

Forstrong Rebalance Summary: Q2 2024

Invest in Forstrong ETFs

Interest Rate Obsession

Interest Rate Obsession: Are Markets Missing the Bigger Picture?

Markets have found a new obsession to dote upon: timing central bank rate cutes. Everywhere you look, interest rate expectations continue to dominate headlines and market narratives. Imminent recession fears have been replaced with questions on the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts, but interest rates are only part of the story. The larger trend is the impressive resilience not only of the US economy but also in other parts of the world.

After pricing in up to 6 rate cuts to start the year investor expectations have quickly scaled back to 3. One could even wonder, are we actually in the “no landing” economy?

In this episode Rob sits down with Forstrong Lead PM, David Kletz, to talk about expectations on rate cuts and the possibility of a “Bull Steepening” on the yield curve. Additionally, they walk through Forstrong’s recent strategy changes and why they see greater opportunity in US mid-caps, Emerging Markets debt and Swedish equities.

For more information on our podcasts please visit:https://forstrong.com/podcast/

Forstrong Dashboard: Breaking Breadth

Ask Forstrong: A Broadening Bull Market?

Forstrong Global Insights

Global Thinking Market Update with Franklin Templeton

In this episode Rob sits down with Michael Greenberg, Senior Vice President and Portfolio Manager at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, to ask questions about their market outlook and where they see opportunity in the year ahead. Throughout the podcast Mike shares his perspectives on inflation, expectations for interest rate cuts, concentration in US equity’s “AI enablers” and Bitcoin’s impact on portfolio returns. While Mike remains positive on the US avoiding a recession and continued equity performance, he makes an interesting case for opportunities within Emerging Markets. Tune in to hear more.

For more information on our podcasts please visit:https://forstrong.com/podcast/

Bitcoin ETFs: Crypto Moves Further Into The Mainstream

Forstrong Global Insights

Bio: Michael Greenberg is a senior vice president and portfolio manager for Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions and is a member of the Investment Strategy & Research Committee.

Mike specializes in fixed income strategy and has co-portfolio management responsibilities for all Canada-based managed programs, including Franklin Quotential, Franklin LifeSmart Sustainable and Franklin ETF Portfolios. He also manages institutional mandates in North America. Mike holds a bachelor of commerce with honors in marketing and international management from the University of Ottawa. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) designations.

Running with Bulls - Is the Market Rally Broadening?

One year ago, market forecasters were in absolute agreement. A Bloomberg consensus survey showed that 100% of the respondents predicted a global recession in 2023. Rising interest rates would surely create an inevitable “hard landing”. When such agreement exists in the investment world one must ask the obvious question, “What don’t we already know?”.

Since then, fears over hard landings have vanished as the powerful surge in US-led growth has thinned out the recession camp. But less discussed is that economic activity outside America has also firmed, led by a liftoff in global trade.

Does this mean that the bull market in US stocks will also start broadening out? We think so. In fact, investor optimism has created bull markets from New York to Tokyo. Japan, France, Canada, Switzerland, Germany, Taiwan, Netherlands, Denmark, Italy, Brazil, and India are in or near bull market territory touching highs last seen in the Post Covid rally.

So, what don’t we already know?

As the Magnificent 7 continue to grab headlines and push prices and valuations to historical highs, opportunities for a follow through trade are all around us. In this episode Rob and Tyler discuss why a broadening rally is so important and how best to position portfolios to profit from this emerging macro trend.