Resonance Podcasts

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast episode, Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Daniel Veasey about the recent volatility in energy markets and what that might mean for the remainder of 2023.   

Topics explored include:

• Banking crisis triggered a sell-off in oil, followed by OPEC taking the market by surprise with planned cuts in production 
• Power and gas volatility caused by French strikes and cold weather in the short-term 
• A warning of big swings in prices over the next 6 months 
• Maintenance season to begin with concerns over the likelihood of French nuclear returns 
• Gas storage injection season is expected to be comfortable with LNG deliveries supportive for now, but dynamics could change quickly 
• Risk remains, including: the potential for demand from Asia; drought warnings across Europe; the potential for a lack of wind, and of course; the Russian/Ukraine conflict  

 This episode of the Resonance was recorded on 4th April 2023.  

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast episode, Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Henry Homer about energy markets, the current equilibrium, and the supply risks ahead in 2023. 

 Topics explored include: 

• Weather, storage and LNG find a new equilibrium for European prices, for now. 
• A lack of snow and rain brings challenges for Europe’s hydro power. 
• Considering the impact of the French nuclear fleet had on the dramatic fall in prices, what does the state of an aging fleet mean for European power prices? 
• Does the reliance on LNG mean high prices for gas will become the norm? 
• What does that mean for operations in Europe, when competing with other world regions? 
• Is there a risk to LNG prices from Asian demand? 

This episode of the Resonance was recorded on 23rd March 2023.

You can read more about this topic in our article "What does the state of French nuclear plants mean for European energy prices?"

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Daniel Veasey about energy prices today and ahead, with significant falls in prices of gas and electricity over the last 6 months.  

Topics explored include:

• The impact on risk premiums - Storage at record highs across Europe for the time of year, demand destruction, energy efficiencies and strong LNG supplies contribute. 
• European energy prices remain high in the global arena, impacting business competitiveness. 
• Despite the cold snap in northern Europe and a tightness in power generation, there is little impact on power prices as we head towards the summer season. 
• Carbon remains high and on the increase, testing technical levels. 
• Risks for the immediate future: Asian LNG demand, the nuclear fleet in France, Russian supplies to Europe when considering LNG volumes, and the impact of hot summers on power generation with multiple risks from droughts across Europe. 

 This episode of the Resonance was recorded on 9th March 2023.  

For our first Resonance energy markets podcast of the year, Jeremy Nicholson talks to Nicola Pollard, Energy Markets and Risk Manager at Alfa Energy Group, about the extraordinary events of 2022, looking ahead to 2023 and beyond.

Topics explored include:

• Storage and market mechanism issues, tensions and the subsequent invasion of Ukraine
• Government market interventions across the UK and Europe and the energy crisis pushing prices to unsustainable levels for business operation
• The need to focus on security of supply
• LNG, a saviour to supplies in 2022, but at what cost and what issues need to be considered for 2023?
• The environmental impact of the dash for coal in Europe
• Weather provides further relief for winter, but will investment in strategic storage push up prices?
• Energy remains a strategic procurement to manage risk and ensure appropriate governance
• Support for business from government in 2023

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Jason Durden about European energy markets and pricing, aspoliticians signal intervention in the energy crisis.

Topics explored include:

• OPEC+ send a signal to the market as prices have fallen since June.
• Volatility reigns as political intervention talks are planned.
• The reality of the challenge facing businesses is essential to address now to avoid economic catastrophe.
• What about carbon as the crisis is fought with increased fossil fuel generation?
• How does the new UK government manage the current crisis, without derailing the flagship net zero agenda?

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Jason Durden about UK energy markets and pricing, as gas prices reached 11 times higher than a year ago.

Topics explored include:

• The simple truth is there is too much demand and not enough supply.
• Wholesale gas reaches levels 11 times higher and electricity 9 x higher than 12 months ago.
• There’s a limit to what can be done on supplies.
• Germany remarks that NS1 coming back in any meaningful way is a pipedream.
• Will September see a relief to the vacuum of pricing over the holiday season?

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Dr Petra Puskarova about European energy prices, as Russia announces fresh short-term maintenance on NS1 and the market reacts.

Topics discussed include:

• Markets are through the roof following unplanned maintenance of NS1
• What might happen to prices if NS1 gas flows return
• 80% gas storage levels across Europe are still expected to be met
• Carbon tested highs in early August, but is now retracing due to lower industry demand
• German industry at risk due to lower gas supply as minister questions relieving sanctions

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa's Jason Durden, Head of Energy Markets and Risk Management, about the current energy crisis being one of price more than storage.

Topics explored include:

• 6-month low for Brent crude and other commodities.
• Oil refinery data suggests Chinese growth is down whilst OPEC and the IEA differ on outlooks for the balance of 2022.
• Property crisis in China likely affecting demand.
• Surge in LNG deliveries to the UK and Europe.
• Gas flows continue to trickle in through Nord Stream 1.
• Gas storage at 86% in France, 77% in Germany and Italy. 19 days till EU’s -%+ storage target is met, albeit at great cost.
• Rising risk of default with delivered costs approached £1/kWh.
• Reliant on Russian gas for some time to come - no quick solutions via electrification of heat, more renewables, energy efficiency, or production of own gas.

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Dr Petra Puskarova about European energy prices, as the storage milestone for gas is expected to be met in early September.

Topics discussed include:

• Oil is weaker due to economic data, while supply interruptions have disturbed the fundamentals
• Carbon in Europe will continue its run till around mid-September
• No changes to gas supplies in recent weeks, but low liquidity and carbon is pushing gas higher
• What might happen in Europe when 80% of gas storage is expected to be met in early September
• Positive market news as new US gas exports expected ahead of winter, Germany indicates extending nuclear fleet use, EDF to keep French fleet running during heatwave to avoid blackouts, and a new nuclear plant in Finland begins operational testing 

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Jason Durden about UK energy prices, as we look at the current market situation and consider the winter ahead on prices, the economy and security of supply.

Topics explored include:

• UK NBP gas prices at a 25% discount to Europe.
• No business in Europe can sustain current prices, even if currently comfortably hedged - will production switch to UK operations?
• Suppliers prepare for tough period ahead as unsustainable prices continue, a policy vacuum persists while politicians take time off to holiday, and recession looms.
• Security of supply paradox for the winter ahead – supply will be available, but it might not be affordable.