FXCM Market Talk Your Trading & Finance Podcast

The non-farm employment change published at 209K. This was lower than the 224K expected and lower than the last print at 306K. These are signs of cooling down, but the job market remains overall strong. The Fed minutes were released last Wednesday but did not give us any new information and a 25-bps hike is still likely at the Fed’s next meeting. This week UK jobs data showed high average earnings, which will be a concern to the Bank of England. Later in the week we get US inflation data and Q2 earnings is set to kick off with the big banks’ earnings and Delta airlines. We also see central bank releases from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Canada.

At the ECB’s symposium in Sintra, Portugal, Fed Chair Powell was hawkish, looking to align markets with the latest dot-plot projection of another two interest rate hikes for this year. US final GDP printed significantly higher than preliminary indications. Headline PCE declined but the core number was sticky. This week, the US celebrates its Independence Day holiday, with the first two days having light liquidity. Wednesday sees the FOMC minutes released, and Friday has the US non-farm employment change scheduled.

Last week, Fed Chair Powell testified on Capitol Hill with a hawkish testimony, but it was the UK inflation print and BoE’s 50bps hike that got the markets attention. This week is the ECB Sintra Forum with Wednesday scheduling a key panel discussion. Inflation prints out of the US, Canda, Australia, and Eurozone will be keenly followed, with final GDP numbers out of the US and UK towards the end of the week.

China CPI and PPI disappointed last week. This week US CPI will be released on Tuesday and the Fed statement is scheduled for Wednesday. The market is pricing in a pause but given the RBA and BoC surprise hikes last week, it is going to be close. Thursday has the ECB expected to hike by 25 bps and Friday will see the BoJ Policy Rate announcement. Tune in to this week’s podcast as our analysts discuss these stories.

Last Friday’s NFP surprised to the upside printing at 339K – 193K was expected. Fed speakers talk about a skip in rate hikes and markets have repriced around this. Saudi Arabia announced a 1 million barrels/day cut for the month of July with an option to extend. The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets with a 25-bps hike but Bank of Canada is still expected to hold. On Friday we get another measure of Chinese demand as it releases its CPI. These plus more in this week’s podcast.

Last week saw inflation coming in ahead of expectations. This has led to markets repricing the path of Fed hikes. US GDP came in better that expected but German GDP reflects technical recession. After a 90-minute call on Saturday, there is a debt ceiling deal which needs to be ratified by both Houses. Non-Farm Payrolls will be released this Friday, providing the next clue for rates. Listen in for these stories and more.

On Friday, during a panel discussion, Fed Chair Powell suggested that rates may not climb as much as expected due to credit tightening. Other Fed speakers suggest that FOMC members are developing diverging views. China data hints at a slowing momentum in recovery and EU CPI is still too high. This week sees two more inflation data points – core PCE on Friday and UK inflation on Wednesday. Wednesday will also see the release of the FOMC minutes. Listen to FXCM Market Talk for these stories and more.

Last week, US headline inflation came in under 5% for the first time in two years. Core inflation was 5.5% y/y and is still looking sticky. Chinese CPI was a disappointing 0.1% y/y and Chinese factory-gate inflate declined 3.6% y/y. We also saw the BoE raise rates by 25 bps to 4.50%. This week will see a host of Fed speakers with Fed Chair Powell participating in a panel discussion on Friday. Chinese and US retail sales and industrial production will be released on Tuesday and Euro final inflation y/y numbers will print on Wednesday. Join our discussion for these topics and more.

The NFP showed higher average hourly earnings and a lower unemployment rate than expected. The FOMC statement suggests a pause, the RBA delivered a surprise rate hike and the ECB increased rates by a smaller increment. This week we get CPI data on Wednesday and the BoE is expected to increase its official bank rate by 25bps. Disney is set to release results this week and Friday delivers UK GDP and industrial production.

UK headline CPI came in above 10%; forecasts were for a single digit print. EUR CPI also suggest sticky elements to inflation. ECB and Fed official’s commentary were hawkish in nature. The job market is still tight but initial unemployment claims have started to tick up.  Markets will be looking at US GDP and core PCE for direction. This week includes Government Ueda’s first BoJ meeting and it is a big week for tech results with Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft reporting.