FXCM Market Talk Your Trading & Finance Podcast

Last week’s FOMC minutes indicate a small recession near year end. Headline CPI declined but core inched up slightly. University of Michigan Inflation Expectations came in higher than previous. China’s GDP beat forecast and UK inflation expected to decrease into single digits. Other regions reporting CPI include Canada, EU, and Japan. Friday sees flash PMIs reported. Banks kicked off Q1 earnings last week with Netflix and Tesla to release this week.

The non-farm employment change shows that the labour market is slowing but still resilient. This week will see CPI and retail sales released. Tightening seems to be making an impact. FOMC minutes will be released on Wednesday with Australian employment data and UK GDP and industrial production out on Thursday. Q1 earning seasons is set to kick off this week with airlines and banks.

As PCE shows signs of moderation, OPEC+ announces supply cut of more than 1m barrels per day from May. FXCM senior market specialists, Russell Shor and Nikos Tzabouras discuss its potential impact on inflation. This Friday sees the NFP release and the RBA and RBNZ are due to announce expected rate hikes on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively.  This week also has PMI releases. Please join us for the conversation.

Join FXCM market specialists, Russell and Nikos as they discuss the current crisis in confidence surrounding the banking sector. In addition, the ECB has raised rates by 50bps and now all eyes turn to the Fed. However, it is uncertain that they will raise rates given the instability in the banking sector. This week also sees the BoE rate announcement.

Chair Powell’s testimony in front of the Senate and House was hawkish and aggressive. Higher for longer and faster were introduced. The market briefly priced in a possible 50bps hike for March. However, the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, lower wage inflation and the uptick in the unemployment rate has the market rethinking this. Moreover, tomorrow sees inflation data – the next piece in the puzzle. Tune in to listen to FXCM market specialists, Russell Shor and Nikos Tzabouras.

FXCM senior market specialist, Russ and Nik, discuss several key events for the week. Fed Chair Powell will testify in front of the Senate (Tues) and House (Wed). The market will be eager to hear any hints on rate hikes or the terminal rate. This Friday the jobs data for February will be released. Last data point was a big surprise higher and the market will look here in anticipation. The RBA is expected to hike by 25bps with the BoC is on hold. Please listen in on these and more.

Join FXCM senior market specialists, Russ and Nik, as they discuss the themes driving the markets for this week. In this podcast, the two analysts discuss the Fed minutes that were released last week and how they differed from Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. Core PCE also came in ahead of expectations, with inflation being a primary driver. Join the discussion for these and more.

Last week’s CPI and PPI release show a stickiness to inflation. The market seems to be coming around to the Fed’s view whilst several Fed officials talk up interest rates. This week the Fed’s minutes will be released on Wednesday and Friday sees the all-important core PCE release. Join FXCM senior market specialists Russ and Nik as they discuss these and more.

Following the blowout jobs report, markets are largely data driven. This week sees a slew of important data. Out of the US inflation, retail sales and industrial production. On the UK front, the calendar has jobs, CPI and retail sales and the EU will see GDP on Tuesday. Diplomatic relations between the US and China are deteriorating rapidly following last week’s shooting down by the US of a Chinese balloon as well as three other objects over the weekend. Market specialists, Russ and Nik, discuss these and more.

Last Week:

· NFP 517K vs 190K forecast.

· Unemployment 3.5%-->3.4%

· Wage data came in as forecast at 0.3% m/m.

· PMI non-manufacturing data is strongly back above 50.

· Fed raises rated by 25bps on Wed.

· Hawkish but more relaxed.

· Powell talked about the disinflation process.

· Did not validate December projections.

· Offered little push back against the market.

· Opened the door to potential pivot (in case of overshoot).

· Following NFP, terminal rate is pushed back one month, and markets sees 5.25%.

· Employment coming back into focus: will unemployment increase.

· ECB: raised by 50bps and committed to another 50bps in March in statement.

· Intentions are to hike passed March.

· President Lagarde acknowledged more balanced risks to inflation outlook.

· ECB likely more hawkish than Fed.

· BoE: No surprises but unclear guidance.

· Softened communication but didn’t signal pause.

· Comment – may be at the turning point but not necessarily done.

This week:

· Powell: moderated discussion Economic Club of Washington (Tuesday).

· RBA cash rate:  25bps after recent inflation surprise?

· Williams (NY Fed president) interview with Nick Timiraos on Wed.

· UK GDP on Fri.

· China/US relations are strained after US shoots down “spy” balloon.

· Tech Earnings: BP, Disney. Last week Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Apple.