DHUnplugged Podcast

Earnings season - better and stats - BIGGEST BUYBACK EVER - We are gauging investor sentiment --- Remember - Confidence and Sentiment (Cheer-leading helps) PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATE - Show 700 Campaign Warm Up - Earnings season - better and stats - BIGGEST BUYBACK EVER - We are gauging investor sentiment -- --- Remember - Confidence and Sentiment (Cheer-leading helps) - Announcing the WINNER CTP for Apple - Fake Work? Market Update - If down - buy.... Names that were hammered due to earnings catching bids again - Follow up - Utilities - Fed Speaks - Can't stop the Dove - Employment - Excitement about the Unemployment Rate Earnings Season Update: - Overall, 80% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q1 2024 to date. - Of these companies, 77% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is equal to the 5-year average of 77% but above the 10-year average of 74%. - In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 7.5% above estimates, which is also below the 5-year average of 8.5% but above the 10-year average of 6.7% - Eight of the eleven sectors are reporting year-over-year earnings growth, led by the Communication Services, Utilities, Consumer Discretionary, and Information Technology sectors. - Three sectors are reporting a year-over-year decline in earnings: Energy, Health Care, and Materials. - Revenue - up again - estimated to be 4.1% when all said and done. - - If 4.1% is the actual revenue growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the 14th consecutive quarter of revenue growth for the index. Fake Work - An investor at famed Silicon Valley firm Andreessen Horowitz is the latest VC to get involved in the debate around "fake work" in the tech industry. - Ulevitch went on to point the finger at Google specifically, calling it "an amazing example." - "I don't think it's crazy to believe that half the white-collar staff at Google probably does no real work," he said. "The company has spent billions and billions of dollars per year on projects that go nowhere for over a decade, and all that money could have been returned to shareholders who have retirement accounts." - Marc Andreessen has criticized a managerial "laptop class" and tweeted in 2022, "The good big companies are overstaffed by 2x. The bad big companies are overstaffed by 4x or more." Buy 'em - Companies that took a hit after earnings (NFLX, AMD) getting bid again - NFLX gapped lower from ~$608 to $551 and now $592 - AMD dropped from $160 to $140 and now $156 - SPY , IWM and QQQ- Now above the 50day Moving average again Follow Up - Utilities - Just wanted to provide this idea again - Data Warehouses and other AI Power hungry places --- Symbol list of some utilities to look at further - SO, NEE, EXC, CMS - Natural gas producers are planning for a significant spike in demand over the next decade, as artificial intelligence drives a surge in electricity consumption that renewables may struggle to meet alone. - After a decade of flat power growth in the U.S., electricity demand is forecast to grow as much as 20% by 2030, according to a Wells Fargo analysis published in April. Power companies are moving to quickly secure energy as the rise of AI coincides with the expansion of domestic semiconductor and battery manufacturing as well as the electrification of the nation's vehicle fleet. - AI data centers alone are expected to add about 323 terawatt hours of electricity demand in the U.S. by 2030 Utilities ETF Apple - Earnings - Nothing great in the earnings. --- A few pockets of sunshine.... --- Raises dividend and $110 BILLION buyback - largest buyback EVER ...

Earnings season winners and losers. Episode 700 - been a great run - plenty more to come. New airline regulations and what that means to all of us. Inflation - its not over just yet. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATE - Show 700 Campaign Warm Up - Show #700 - Guess the date of EPISODE #1 (Show # 1 was Sep 16, 2008) - - No Agenda episode #1 - October 26, 2007 --- The Disciplined Investor Podcast show #1 - Mar 02, 2007 - ALL economic series showing signs of inflation - The great money in God - Top Wealthiest Pastors - Fiducuary rules fo Retirment Plans Market Update - Shaking off some and smacking others - earnings season underway - April not a great month for US equities - April now in the books - Earnings seasons - winners and losers - Yields on I Bonds Updated - European stocks end April down 1.49%, posting first negative month since October Derivative AI Investing - Secondary play - Utilities - We spoke of the huge demand for electricity/power from any source to power datacenters - Investors looking for a unique way into the stock market’s artificial intelligence boom are finding an intriguing bank shot in what’s traditionally the most boring corner of the equities universe: utilities. - Southern Company, NextEra, Excelon, CMS Energy also Eaton, Hubbell -- Bad couple years as this is an interest sensitive sector - but massive consumption increase coming Bird Flu in Milk - The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed milking cows in Colorado tested positive for Bird Flu, following earlier infections in Texas, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, Idaho, New Mexico, North Carolina and South Dakota. - Additional tests of milk showed that pasteurization killed the bird flu virus, federal health officials said on Friday, as Colorado became the ninth U.S. state to report an infected dairy herd. - The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) late on Friday said preliminary results from gold-standard PCR testing showed pasteurization killed the virus in milk and baby formula. It did not say how many milk products it had tested but added that it plans to do more testing on 297 products from 38 states. Good Money in God - Most Wealth Pastors - Benny Hinn, 71 Estimated net worth: US$60 million Joel Osteen, 61 Estimated net worth: US$100 million - Kenneth Copeland, 87 Estimated net worth: US$300 million Apple Headset and More - Earnings coming May 2 - Big slowdown in sales in China has been widely telegraphed - Not much excitement about the product line or any innovation at this point - AI is going to be conversation they will start to help push shares - Apple slashes Vision Pro production, cancels 2025 model in response to plummeting demand -- Analysts are cutting their sales for the Vision Pro in HALF! - - Apple may decide not to release a new model in 2025 - was expecting a cheaper version possibly Back to Inflation - Inflation showed little signs of letting up in March, with a key barometer the Federal Reserve watches closely showing that price pressures remain elevated. - The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased 2.8% from a year ago in March, the same as in February, the Commerce Department reported Friday. That was above the 2.7% estimate from the Dow Jones consensus. - Consumers showed they are still spending despite the elevated price level. Personal spending rose 0.8% on the month, a touch higher even than the 0.7% estimate. Personal income increased 0.5%, in line with expectations and higher than the 0.3% increase in February. - GDP Report showed more pricing pressures - Overall, 100% of recent reports showed that the inflation monste...

Markets having a tough time and a big week of data is coming. Got the 5% correction - is there more? M&A - Another deal dies PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATE - Show 700 Campaign Warm Up - Markets having a tough time - Happy Passover! - SHOW 700 coming up! - Happy belated 420 Day to our fine smoky listeners - Jumping to Conclusions - We have a limerick! Market Update - Big week(s) coming for economics - Got the 5% correction - is there more? - M&A - Another deal dies - Earnings - Tech on deck - Historic Treasury Auction this week - need to pay the bills since tax receipts not doing it and lots of debt outstanding Who Would think??? - UK - FTSE 100 at all-time high! Recap: - Microsoft Corp., Meta Platforms Inc., Google parent Alphabet Inc. and Tesla Inc., all of which are among the so-called Magnificent Seven group of tech giants, will report THIS WEEK week. - Technology stocks are selling off, with the Nasdaq 100 Index registering its biggest weekly drop since November 2022 in the midst of a four-week losing streak, its longest since December 2022. - Even AI darling Nvidia Corp. is getting hit, plunging 10% on Friday and wiping out $212 billion in market value for its worst day since the Covid pandemic in March 2020. MAG7 Profit Outlook - But hope is on the horizon. Profits for the Mag Seven — which also includes Apple Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Nvidia — are forecast to rise 38% in the first quarter from a year ago, dwarfing the overall S&P 500’s 2.4% anticipated year-over-year earnings growth, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data. - Around 178 S&P 500 companies — representing more than 40% of the index’s market capitalization — will post results next week. But the biggest expectations are for megacap tech firms. = = Nvidia, which Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s trading desk dubbed “the most important stock on planet Earth,” doesn’t report its earnings for another month. Tesla - Stock down a lot - DOWN 43% YTD - Down 65% from high set November 2021 - Tesla is recalling nearly 3,900 of its Cybertrucks due to an issue with the vehicle's accelerator pedal. - The recall, announced Wednesday, was prompted by accelerator pedal pads in the trucks that "may dislodge and cause the pedal to become trapped by the interior trim," - All of the 3,878 of the 2024 Cybertrucks that Tesla built between Nov. 13 and April 4 are subject to the recall, the electric vehicle maker’s safety recall report said. - And then: Tesla on Saturday slashed the price of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) driver assistant software to $8,000 from $12,000 in the United States, as CEO Elon Musk reaffirms his commitment to self-driving technology. - Musk is betting the technology will become a major source of revenue for the world's most valuable automaker. But he has for years failed to achieve the goal of self-driving capability, with the technology under growing regulatory and legal scrutiny. ----- Could be a short squeeze setting up for earnings (Tonight) - READ MORE>>>>> Tesla Earnings - Tesla misses by $0.04, misses on revs, gross margin down 199 bps yr/yr, reiterates that in 2024, vehicle volume may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023 - Total GAAP gross margin of 17.4%, down 199 bps yr/yr. - Operating expenses up 37% yr/yr to $2.53 bln. - Total Deliveries down 9% to 386,810. - Outlook: Co states, "Our company is currently between two major growth waves: the first one began with the global expansion of the Model 3/Y platform and we believe the next one will be initiated by advances in autonomy and introduction of new products, including those built on our next generation vehicle platform.

Risk - happens fast! Costco Selling ALOT of Gold April 15th - Tax payment withdrawals Rates spike, oil moves lower PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Risk Happens FAST - Costco Selling ALOT of Gold - April 15th - Tax payment withdrawals - Fewer students attending 2 0r 4-year college Market Update - Banks reporting - mixed results - Rates UP! - Earnings Season - Risk off - Missiles Flying --- WAR escalations concerning investors Rates - Rates spiked with all of the recent concern that the Fed will not be cutting rates so fast - Came on on the Iran retaliation worries - Spike Monday to 4.64% for the 10Yr - starting to get worrisome that could be technical move and disrupt markets Rates in Europe - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Tuesday said the central bank remains on course to cut interest rates in the near term, subject to any major shocks. - "We just need to build a bit more confidence in this disinflationary process but if it moves according to our expectations, if we don't have a major shock in development, we are heading towards a moment where we have to moderate the restrictive monetary policy," Lagarde said. --- Also noted that she is very attentive to the price of oil HA! If you don't like the numbers... - The Bank of England on Friday announced a “once in a generation” overhaul of its inflation forecasting following a long-awaited review by former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke. - The review was initiated in response to criticism over shortcomings in the bank’s recent policymaking. - It sets out 12 recommendations — including scrapping the bank’s “fan chart” forecasting system — which BOE Governor Andrew Bailey said the bank was committed to implementing. Inflation Spots Sticker Shock And then at 1:30PM Tuesday - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at Canadian forum says recent data shows lack of progress on returning to 2% inflation goal; says US economic performance has been quite strong. - Markets were not pleased - ---- Begs the question: - what is the point of this at a time with such global stress having these types of comments? ---- WSJ's Nick Timiraos says Fed Chairman Jerome Powell "dialed back" rate reduction expectations at Canadian forum amid new inflation uncertainty Safe-haven? - Bitcoin and other cryptos PLUNGE when Iran sent misses and drones - How is that digital gold or store of value? - Simply trades like a speculative risk asset and starting to hear that phrase quite a lot. - Tried to rally on Sunday when Iran said that is all they are doing- but sold off again Monday Earnings This Week - Plenty of banks and financials (BAC, GS etc) also Netflix Thursday after the close - Proctor and Gamble on Friday - Problem is that they come right as risk elevated. Goldman Sachs Earnings - Goldman Sachs on Monday posted first-quarter profit and revenue that topped analysts’ expectations, fueled by a surge in trading and investment banking revenue. - The bank said profit jumped 28% to $4.13 billion, or $11.58 per share, from the year earlier period, thanks to a rebound in capital markets activities - Goldman shares climbed more than 4% in the days trading Monday. JPM Earnings - The bank said first-quarter profit rose 6% to $13.42 billion, or $4.44 per share, from a year earlier, boosted by its takeover last year of First Republic during the regional banking crisis. - But in guidance for 2024, the bank said it expected net interest income of around $90 billion, which is essentially unchanged from its previous forecast. - That appeared to disappoint investors, some of whom expected JPMorgan to raise its guidance by $2 billion ...

A WINNER - CTP for Rumble A new CTP to announce! Club 72 Thank You Solar Eclipse PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - A WINNER - CTP for Rumble - A new CTP to announce! - Club 72 - Solar Eclipse Market Update - Boeing issues continue - Oil market on fire - Yellen - talking tariffs again - Kashkari and others on cuts - Earnings season starts this week Lucky CLUB 72 Jonathan Farris Mark Studebaker William Palmer Susan Erickson Terrence Cleary Anonymous (2) Fed Walking All Back - Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said on Thursday that at the U.S. central bank's meeting last month he penciled in two interest rate cuts this year but if inflation continues to stall, none may be required by year end. - "If we continue to see inflation moving sideways, then that would make me question whether we need to do those rate cuts at all," Kashkari said during an interview with Pensions & Investments. "There's a lot of momentum in the economy right now." Walking Forward - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Friday that it's possible interest rates may have to move higher to control inflation, rather than the cuts her fellow officials have indicated are likely and that the market is expecting. - "While it is not my baseline outlook, I continue to see the risk that at a future meeting we may need to increase the policy rate further should progress on inflation stall or even reverse," Who is the best? -If you were wondering about the track record of the Fed Chair's performance over time, it's worth delving into the historical data. - Overall, the track record of Fed Chairs over time reflects the challenges and complexities of managing monetary policy in a dynamic and ever-changing economic environment. Each Chair has faced unique circumstances and challenges during their tenure, and their actions have had far-reaching implications for financial markets and the economy as a whole. Whispers - Hearing that the car business - used and new having one of the worst years on record (from selective car salespeople) - Same as above on lower end boat business (sales) - U.S. small-business confidence slipped to the lowest level in more than 11 years in March amid rising concerns about inflation, according to a survey on Tuesday. - The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said its Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.9 point to 88.5 last month, the lowest level since December 2012. It was the 27th straight month the index was below the 50-year average of 98. - - Twenty-five percent of owners reported inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, reflecting higher input and labor costs, up 2 points from February. The share of businesses raising average selling prices rose 7 points from the prior month. Inflation Data and ECO - CPI and PPI this week - CPI expectations are 0.4% MoM for March --- Many are sahing that this is a clean month without odd seasonal factors - so something to watch - - 10 Yr at 4.378% ----------- FOMC minutes at 2:00 Wednesday -- Last week - Employment situation continues to be strong - 3.8% Unemployment rate 300k added to payrolls (Wage growth was okay) Earnings Season - Banks in Focus - Banks are expected to see some decline in earnings over the period - Focus on net interest margin as well as credit deterioration (and days outstanding) - However, YoY - earnings growth for some look pretty good - - - - Property & Casualty Insurance (87%), Reinsurance (62%), Life & Health Insurance (12%), and Multi-line Insurance (12%). REMOTE WORK on the sea

All of a sudden - mood swing The bloom is off the Rate-Cut-Rose Leaking Data - Another breach More AI - lots of $$ committed to this... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - All of a sudden - mood swing - Bloom is off the Rate Cut Rose - Leaking Data - Another breach - More AI - lots of $$ committed to this... Market Update - Oil prices moving through key resistance - Apple back to Oct 2023 support -watch out below? - Gold/Silver Soaring - into higher rates and higher USD??? - Oil on the rise CTP for Rumble Update - Marcus G - In the top spot right now.... - - Thatch House dude HCD: Donations - Need a new Shirt Prize and Design - Plus Contracted Devs prices inflation. Analyzing Apple's Chart - Key levels of support - Down-trend Apple Chart Powell on Good Friday - PCE report (on day the markets are closed for Good Friday) -- Showed 2.8% YoY and 0.3% MoM - Powell tried to talk down market expectations for rate cuts like several other recent speakers - - Market still hoping for MAYBE 3 - but it looks like June is off the table. Stronger Economy than Thought - ISM comes in above 50 for the first time in nearly 18 months - Economic strength + good employment + Inflation = Rate CUT????? - Market is finally getting the hint --- 10-Yr rate spiked to 4.38% today ISM Chart Global Economic Trends - China finally saw its manufacturing number gain some traction last month --- China's manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in 13 months in March, with business confidence hitting an 11-month high, driven by growing new orders from customers at home and abroad, a private survey showed on Monday. - South Korea - Sticky inflation (Consumer prices advanced 3.1% in March from a year earlier) USA Strong Commodities on the rise - Cocoa futures for May delivery were up 3.9% at $10,030 per metric ton, marking the first time the commodity breaks above the $10,000 mark. Cocoa has been on a tear this year, soaring nearly 39%. - Ivory Coast, the biggest coca producer in the world, is facing hotter-than-normal temperatures — which have led to dryer-than-usual conditions and crop yields. TSLA - Q1 deliveries declined by 8.5% yr/yr to 433,000, representing TSLA's first yr/yr decline since the pandemic-impacted year of 2020. Importantly, that decrease is partly due to extraordinary events that were out of TSLA's control. -- Berlin fire factory shutdown, Red Sea passage issues etch. - Competition in China is really heating up and cost of EVs from many Chinese manufacturers are much lower. M&A - Amazon - Amazon.com Inc. says it’s investing an additional $2.75 billion into Anthropic, an artificial intelligence startup. - The infusion brings Amazon’s total investment in the company, a well-regarded builder of so-called generative AI tools able to generate text and analysis, to $4 billion, following an earlier investment announced in September. - As part of that deal, Amazon had the right to contribute the additional funds in the form of a convertible note, provided it did so before the end of March. AI NEWS - Microsoft and OpenAI are in discussions regarding Stargate, a new AI super-computer data center project to be headquartered in the U.S. may cost over $115 billion and is planned for launch in 2028. - $$$$$$115 BILLION - That is like 115,000 $1,000,000 homes.... - Stargate’s power requirements, estimated to be several gigawatts (5) may require Microsoft and OpenAI to explore alternative power sources, like nuclear power. Enough to power 3,750,000 for a year!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ----- Hoover Dam X2 Meanwhile - Microsoft will sell its chat and video app Teams s...

Fed in Focus - FOMC Rate Decision Wednesday. Reddit IPO Frenzy! Inflation - definitely not going away. Announcing - A New Closest to The Pin PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - A New CTP Announced - No Show Next week - business meetings out of town - A not so surprising result in the Russian Elections - An important change to stock trade settlements is coming Market Update - Fed in Focus - FOMC Rate Decision Wednesday - Reddit IPO Frenzy - Inflation - definitely not going away - AI Frenzy - Culd Call This DHAI Unplugged - so much AI news to discuss - Yield Frenzy PPI Release - After a HOT CPI, PPI Comes in Hotter - 0.6% on the core - but only 1.6% YoY - The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.6 percent in February. - Prices for final demand goods advanced 1.2 percent, and the index for final demand services moved up 0.3 percent. - Prices for final demand advanced 1.6 percent for the 12 months ended in February. - Markets didn't know what to do with this on Friday. PPI MoM Company Stats - Recession? - According to FactSet: During Dec-March earnings calls, 47 cited the term “recession” during their earnings calls for the fourth quarter. -- This number is below the 5-year average of 85 and below the 10-year average of 61. - This quarter will mark the lowest number of S&P 500 companies citing “recession” on earnings calls for a quarter since Q4 2021 Companies Citing Recession % of Companies Reddit - IPO slated to be live sometime this week (March 21) - 5X Oversubscribed - Reddit began sending invitations to users to participate in the IPO based on one of two measurements of engagement on the site: either the number of actions they’ve taken as a moderator of a forum on the platform (also known as a “subreddit”) or their “karma” score, a figure that indicates a user’s contributions and reputation among other users on the site. - Reddit plans to list 22 million shares at a price between $31 and $34, according to the latest version of the IPO prospectus it filed Monday with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company stands to take in between $473.6 million and $519.4 million from the sale of roughly 15.3 million shares. - Valuation > $6 billion - Question???? Is Reddit profitable? NO - However, the company has been substantially growing revenue in the past few years. ---- Reddit's total revenue in 2023 was $804 million, up 21% from $666 million in 2022. ----- Reddit's net loss for 2023 narrowed to $90.8 million. Yields - 10 YR - Highest level of 2024 - technically breaking out - if Fed moves a bot more hawkish - 4.50% is next test Yields Japan Yields - The Bank of Japan is set to raise its key interest rate for the first time in 17 years on Tuesday following its two-day monetary policy meeting, Kyodo reported. - The BOJ will raise the short-term rate to the 0%-0.1% range, the report said. The development reflects growing confidence among policymakers that a virtuous cycle of wage growth and price hikes is in motion following this year’s labor-management pay negotiations - RAISING TO ZERO! Global Rates - Who Will CUT First? First Mover? ELON - Increasing prices on Model Y by $1,000 --- Stock moves up by 6% - Goldman Downgrades - Perhaps this is why stock moved up - another bug downgrade - stock in the toilet - nowhere else to go --- SpaceX is building a network of hundreds of spy satellites under a classified contract with a U.S. intelligence agency, five sources familiar with the program said, demonstrating deepening ties between billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk's space company and national security agencies. Elon - Ketamine

Volatility is back and Bitcoin mania is here again. Need a new CTP Stock! China stocks on a run... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Volatility is back - Bitcoin mania - Need a new CTP Stock! - LSD - making an interesting comeback Market Update - NVDA had 2 down days! - Markets still want to go higher - not matter what the data - Yields move up with CPI - Big rebound for NVDA - not letting it go down too much... CPI Release - Total CPI increased by 0.4% month-over-month, meeting expectations, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) also rose by 0.4% month-over-month (0.3%). - On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 3.2%, compared to 3.1% in January, and core CPI increased by 3.8%, versus 3.9% in January. - Excluding shelter, CPI rose by a more modest 1.8% year-over-year. - Despite the headline disappointment for core CPI, the market seems optimistic about the future, anticipating a reduction in the isolated impact of the shelter index in the coming months due to an expected moderation in rent prices. (in other words, thinking the Fed's PCE will not be so hot next time and the Fed will still cut sometime this year) CPI Report key takeaways: - The food index showed no change month-over-month and increased by 2.2% year-over-year. - The energy index rose by 2.3% month-over-month and declined by 1.9% year-over-year. - Used cars and trucks saw a 0.5% increase month-over-month and a 1.8% decrease year-over-year. - The apparel index was up 0.6% month-over-month and unchanged year-over-year. - The all items index, excluding food, shelter, and energy, increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.2% year-over-year. Inflation - YoY Inflation - ACTUAL Layoffs - Does not fit the narrative - Layoff announcements in February hit their highest level for the month since the global financial crisis, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. - The total of 84,638 planned cuts showed an increase of 3% from January and 9% from the same month a year ago, with technology and finance companies at the forefront. - From a historical perspective, this was the worst February since 2009, which saw 186,350 announcements as the worst of the financial crisis was seemingly coming to an end. - Here is where it gets interesting: The layoff numbers, however, are not feeding through to weekly jobless claims, suggesting that unemployment is short-lived and workers are able to find new positions. Powell - On one hand he stated that the Fed is watching and not ready yet to cut rates - data dependent - A couple days later he indicated that interest rate cuts may not be too far off if inflation signals cooperate. - In remarks to the Senate Banking Committee, the central bank leader didn't provide a precise timetable of when he sees easing happening, but noted that the day could be coming soon. Mnuchin to the Rescue? -NYCB had bad month - and got worse - Lost 7% of deposits - Bond rating cut - Investment firm lead by Steve Mnuchin swooped in with a cool $1 billion rescue package - Remember NYCD bought Signature Bank - obviously so much crap in that portfolio it helped poison NYCB Oracle Earnings - New ATH - Reports Q3 (Feb) earnings of $1.41 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.03better thanthe FactSet Consensus of $1.38; revenues rose 7.1% year/year to $13.28 bln vs the $13.29 bln FactSet Consensus. - Q3 Total Remaining Performance Obligations up 29% to $80 billion. - Q3 Cloud Revenue (IaaS plus SaaS) $5.1 billion, up 25% in USD, up 24% in constant currency. - Q3 Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) Revenue $1.8 billion, up 49% in both USD and constant currency.

All sorts of good stuff in this episode. Some good laughs and fun throughout the year. Thanks to Ryan Rediske for all the help in putting this together! DHUnplugged is streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar for access. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Follow Ryan on Twitter

TECH on fire - Bulls overjoyed! Hedge Funds - Making some moves - Surprising Year of Pharma? To The Moon - Crypto Style Valuations getting frothy? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Pays to Follow Pelosi! - Landing on the Moon - then falling over - Japan - something not kosher - New See-through laptop screens Market Update - TECH on fire - Bulls overjoyed! - Hedge Funds - Making some moves - Surprising - Year of Pharma? - To The Moon - Crypto Style - Valuations getting frothy Froth-a-Bubble- Icous? - There is some concern at Apollo regarding a bubble in S&P 500 - The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 today are more overvalued than the top 10 companies were during the tech bubble in the mid-1990s, see chart below. - Different makeup back in 1999 - but still of interest asa the S&P500 reaches levels (P/E) at the high end of the ranges. - SEE LINK Smart Money? - Hedge funds piled into tech stocks in the weeks before Nvidia Corp. earnings. Now, they’re cashing out and selling at the fastest pace in seven months. - Professional managers offloaded their positions for four straight sessions last week, including Thursday, the day after Nvidia posted results, according to data from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime-brokerage unit. The intensity of the selling ranks in the 98th - he data suggests traders are booking profits on their tech wagers after a six-week buying streak and putting that extra cash into less volatile stocks, such as consumer staples. - SEE LINK Nancy! - NEWS MONDAY: PANW - Palo Alto Networks shares higher by 9% after Rep. Nancy Pelosi reported Friday afternoon the purchase of 70 call options (purchases made 2/12 and 2/21) - Stock moved down 27% after earnings last week - In fairness, the purchases on 2/12 are very underwater - AH picked this for the game right after post-earnings slump Earnings - Zoom - Zoom shares rose as much as 13% in extended trading on Monday after the video chat software vendor announced fiscal fourth-quarter results that topped analysts' expectations. - Here's how the company did, compared with consensus among analysts polled by LSEG: - -- - Earnings per share: $1.22, adjusted vs. $1.15 expected - - - -Revenue: $1.15 billion vs. $1.13 billion expected Disney -Walt Disneyshareholder Blackwells Capital is calling for it to come up with an artificial intelligence (AI) strategy, saying that this could lift the U.S. media and entertainment conglomerate's stock price by as much as 129%. Blackwells is one of two activist investors pushing for board seats What Goes Up... - Intuitive Machines Inc. shares sink Monday, after the spacecraft company said its lander, which successfully touched down on the moon last week, likely landed on its side. - The landing was touted as the first by a private-sector company to reach the moon intact, as well as the first US spacecraft to reach the moon’s surface since 1972. - In a Monday update, the company wrote that “flight controllers intend to collect data until the lander’s solar panels are no longer exposed to light,” and that “based on Earth and Moon positioning, we believe flight controllers will continue to communicate with Odysseus until Tuesday morning.” - Stock down 33% on this news Japan - Markets at new highs - Yen weak weak weak - Government keeps ultra-loose monetary policy - Recession official - Something is not right over there More Japan - Federal prosecutors in New York on Wednesday said they had charged a Japanese Yakuza leader with conspiring to traffic nuclear materials from Burma to other countries. - Prosecutors said the accused gangster Takeshi Ebisawa "and his confederates showed sa...