DHUnplugged Podcast

Jobs report - a blowout. Build the Wall (again). Short squeeze - that was something. What other surprises can the market ignore? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - ROFL - Experts have no idea - Strikes still coming - Virginia is cold - Building a Wall! - Announcing the Winner of the CTP for NVDA Market Update - Employment Report Hot - Markets cave and then..... - Next up on list of surprses - Israel conflict (odd market action - but explainable) - Not a surprise - Fed gang talks down rate hike - Once again - entering earnings season - Even more potential strikes JOBS - U.S. employment increased by the most in eight months in September as hiring rose broadly, pointing to persistent labor market strength that could give the Federal Reserve ammunition to raise interest rates again, though wage growth is slowing. - The larger-than-expected surge in nonfarm payrolls last month and sharp upward revisions to July and August's jobs counts reported by the Labor Department in its closely watched employment report on Friday cemented expectations that economic activity accelerated in the third quarter. - Bond yields initially surged, then came back a bit - for whatever reason stocks surged late morning into the end of the day - - Bond yields came in a bit, but weird situation - still elevated. Looked like a short-cover extraordinaire initially ---- Here is other side of the thinking (bull camp (just keep investing) - "With bond yields soaring, the dollar strengthening, and equity market volatility increasing there is a renewed tightening of financial conditions that does some of the work for the Fed, so it's not a done deal the Fed hikes rates again," said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide. ----------The broad increase in payrolls was led by the leisure and hospitality industry, which added 96,000 jobs. Restaurants and bars dominated, with 61,000 positions created, returning employment in the sector back to its pre-pandemic level. Strike is On - Tens of thousands of nurses and other healthcare workers launched a planned three-day strike at Kaiser Permanente facilities across the U.S. on Wednesday, after contract talks failed to meet the union deadline for reaching a settlement. - Only going to get worse - MORE--> Pharmacy employees at some U.S. Walgreens stores, including pharmacists, technicians and support staff, plan a walkout this week - between Monday and Wednesday - The walkout is in response to what pharmacy employees call burdensome prescription and vaccination expectations placed on pharmacists, the report said. Tesla - Needs to be in the news everyday - clearly this is a general plan by management - Drops prices again after lower unit deliveries - stock ignores the reality - Something weird with the stock recently...Way too much optimism (either manipulation/inside buying/something else?) War - Israel and ... - Big horrible situation in the Mid-East - Oil surges on conflict - Gaza strip cuttoff - ground offensive about to begin - Quite the social media war going on - misinformation on parade ---- Sunday futures get knocked then markets rally on Monday (see below) Fed - Not Surprising - Top ranking Federal Reserve officials indicated Monday that rising yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, which directly influence financing costs for households and businesses, could steer the Fed from further increases in its short-term policy rate and substitute the work done by financial markets for formal monetary policy moves by the central bank. - "We are in a sensitive period of risk management, where we have to balance the risk of not having tightened enough,

Yields screaming higher. Big week for economic news that may flip the script. It is official - correction in many sectors and major indices. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Back from Barbados - Diving good and bad ---ROTI! -- Space Debris - fines being issued - Politicians on trial - Japan car deal - stopped - House Speaker Kevin McCarthy ? Market Update - 10Yr Yield approaching 4.5% 4.8%!!! - 30 Year was 4.65% Friday - now 4.94% - Friday Jobs number important - JOLTS was much stronger than expected today - Ugly market conditions - appears to be The TTBOWTBW coming soon. - UPDATE- Last week: Oversold reading - switched the short small-caps today This week: Closed position after failure to launch DUMB Stuff - Inflation is not some uncontrollable item that we are all victims of. We help to perpetuate inflationary trnds by paying up the prices and spend, spend, spend. If we look at strikes - for more $$ due to cost of living, that is ass-backwards. JCD: Bring Back HUAC? Space Junk - Dish Network Corp. was fined $150,000 by US regulators for leaving a retired satellite parked in the wrong place in space, reflecting official concern over the growing amount of debris orbiting Earth and the potential for mishaps. - “This is a breakthrough settlement, making very clear the FCC has strong enforcement authority and capability to enforce its vitally important space debris rules,” Loyaan A. Egal, the agency’s enforcement bureau chief, said in a statement. - The FCC says it has applications pending for more than 56,000 satellites. - The number of satellites has reached almost 9,000, compared with roughly 2,000 less than five years ago, according to Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at Harvard University. - SPACEX accounts for 4,800 of the total Political Funhouse - Donald Trump on trial in NY (Civil) ---- Outcome could be devastating for his business - Hunter Biden up on gun charges --- President Joe Biden's son Hunter Biden is expected to plead not guilty on Tuesday to lying about his drug use while buying a handgun - Both families need to get in the White House badly so that they will be able to issue pardons. The Issue... - Yields rising...Long-Bond getting hammered - Markets now spooked - Fed hawkish not helping - Govy Shutdown not helping - TLT down 17% in 3 months Long Bond ETF Bond Vigilantes - Benchmark US yields jumped to the highest levels in 16 years Monday, extending an uptrend that began in May. - The latest surge shows Treasuries are detached from their fundamental drivers, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. - The move shows rising alarm at what fiscal policymakers are doing, economist Ed Yardeni says. - The slide in Treasuries has been excessive given recent economic data and Federal Reserve policy, suggesting it’s instead being driven by fears over the swelling US deficit IPO Debacle - Instacart weakness continues as shares are now trading 36% below its IPO opening price of $42; slowing growth and a full valuation are primary culprits for the selloff - What about ARM - about 0% below opening day IPO price - Birkenstock - newest IPO that is being discussed Japan Putting Hammer Down - Japan's move to bar most used-car sales to Russia slammed the brakes on a trade nearing $2 billion annually that had boomed in the shadow of sanctions over Ukraine elsewhere - In early August, Japan's government banned exports of all but subcompact cars to Russia, cutting off a lucrative backchannel in trade in used Toyotas, Hondas and Nissans for a network of brokers and smaller ports - While wiping out Russia's biggest source of used cars,

Markets are pissed - and they have every right to be as Powell dumps markets. Seasonal patters playing out. Could strikes be the next market breaking catalyst? Listen in to what China is doing with US Bonds - not good PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - The Wait for the Fed is over - and the market is pissed - Starting t wonder if there is another banking scare coming (rate rocketing higher) - We still selling Rosh Hashana and Buying Yom Kippur? - Weight loss drugs worrying different market segments - Wondering - Next Catalyst for market - Unions Strike Trend? - PSA about COVID Season Market Update - 10Yr Yield approaching 4.5% - Oil taps $92 then comes in to $90 - Bad week for markets - we have some stats - Cisco M&A - Splunk - Oversold reading - switched the short small-caps today Market Commentary The major indices registered sizable declines last week. - Softness in mega caps had a disproportionate influence on index performance, but there was no effort to rotate anywhere else so many stocks came along for the downside ride. - All 11 S&P 500 sectors finished in the red last week. ----- - - - - - The consumer discretionary (-6.4%), real estate (-5.4%), and materials (-3.7%) were the top laggards while the health care sector (-1.2%) saw the slimmest loss. - The catalyst for the weakness was another big jump in Treasury yields. ----- - - - The 2-yr note yield climbed eight basis points last week to 5.12%. --- - -The 10-yr note yield climbed 12 basis points last week to 4.44%. - - - - - -Including lastweek's move, the 10-yr note yield is up 35 basis points this month. **** Those moves were largely in response to the Fed's hawkish pause on Wednesday. Fed Update Meeting (Briefing.com) - As expected, the FOMC voted unanimously to leave the target range for the fed funds rate unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. - - - The median fed funds rate estimate for 2023 was unchanged at 5.6% - - - BUT the median estimate for 2024 was 5.1%, versus 4.6% in June. This suggests officials are still leaning in favor of one more rate hike this year it also tells us that there is an expectation that rates will come down by only 50 basis points in 2024, as opposed to 100 basis points when estimates were provided in June. - - - - -The longer-run fed funds rate estimate was maintained at 2.5%, leaving one to infer that the Fed is going to stay committed to its 2.0% inflation target. Other Central Banks - Japan's central bank maintained its ultra-loose policy and left rates unchanged last Friday, mindful of the "extremely high uncertainties" on the growth outlook domestically and globally. - Yen dropped hard on the news (weakening) - In a policy statement after its September policy meeting, the Bank of Japan said it would maintain short-term interest rates at -0.1%, and cap the 10-year Japanese government bond yield around zero. - Very dovish for Japanese rates (in a world that everything else is inflating) More Other Central Banks - The Bank of England halted its long run of interest rate increases on Thursday as the British economy slowed, but it said it was not taking a recent fall in inflation for granted. - A day after a surprise slowing in Britain's fast pace of price growth, the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee voted by a narrow margin of 5-4 to keep Bank Rate at 5.25%. - Are they really using data that is real-time? Stupid as economy moves slowly - they are nuts! China Dropping Treasury Holdings - China has been reducing its US Treasury holding for about 10 years now - China, presumably, drew some conclusions from the Russia invasion of Ukraine (freezing of assets) and recognized the same cou...

A new Closest to the Pin announced. UAW strike lingers... Fed rate decision ahead. Consumers are feeling the pinch. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Announcing a NEW Closest to The Pin this week - Plenty of interest in new legislation up for vote - Retail worried about holiday season - hiring trends - Clorox Update - Waiting and Waiting for Fed decision - markets on hold... Market Update - Ugly and the the week - markets spooked on inflation and eco - Wednesday is the day - Fed rate decision meeting - UAW Strike - EU Leaking proof it's decisions - Oil prices starting to pinch Commentary - Overall - markets are in a consolidation mode, eco is relatively strong with a few dispensed pockets of weakness. - Consumers are starting to feel the pinch - Several bears have finally capitulated - that is a concern (another one of those one sided things that is never discussed - when bulls capitulate it is good - when bears capitulate - it is good)" - Oil prices - that is a concern - Yields still rising - China may be bottoming - that is good sign - Inflation - slowing down, but Fed may have more work to do - Earnings outlook - hard to image much better from here - what is important is the forward multiple Fed Heads - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates at its Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting, Goldman Sachs strategists wrote on Saturday, while also forecasting the U.S. central bank would lift its economic growth projections when policymakers gather next week. - "On November, we think that further labor market rebalancing, better news on inflation, and the likely upcoming Q4 growth pothole will convince more participants that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) can forgo a final hike this year, as we think it ultimately will," the investment bank's strategists wrote in a report. - Current market bet s that there will be no hike this meeting - but potential for hike (0.25%) next meeting Some Legislative Stuff MJ Bill - The Senate Banking Committee has scheduled marijuana banking legislation for a vote on Sept. 27, a much-anticipated move that would advance one of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s top priorities to the Senate floor. - The bipartisan SAFE Banking Act sponsored by Democrat Jeff Merkley of Oregon has bipartisan support, including from the lead Republican sponsor, Steve Daines of Montana, who heads his party’s campaign committee. - Backers of the legislation have been increasingly optimistic they will easily exceed the 60 votes needed - If signed into law, the SAFE Banking Act would enable cannabis-related businesses (CRBs) to transact business by means other than cash Credit Card Legislation - Credit Card Competition Act of 2023 - It would require the largest credit-card issuing financial institutions in the country—those with assets over $100 billion–to enable at least two credit card networks to be used on their credit cards instead of just one, and at least one of those networks must be a network other than the Visa/Mastercard duopoly. - There is concern that this bill will potentially reduce airline (and other) reward points as competition will drive transaction fee prices down and need to drop incentive programs --- - HEADLINES on socialize media and internet about how this bill kills reward programs - however, does not seem that is a true statement - Similar legislation failed to pass in 2022 Oil - Recap of our discussion last week - Oil looks like destined to keep moving to $92 - then what? - Currently trading at $91 - A move above $92 would put $95 in play - as long as OPEC+ keeps with voluntary production cuts Retail Confidence

All the rage - let's test our testosterone - then shave our legs! China has figured it out....How to hurt the USA. Elon - listening in and shutting down? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Big week - Inflation eyed - 10-year near 4.3% - One European country looks the worst - one recession - Biden - 5-day world tour - Soft landing - everyone talking about it - Oh, Elon Market Update - Not such a great month so far.... - China starting to panic (that may be good) -- 2 IPOs on Tap - M&A - One food deal announced - Apple .... More China restrictions (interesting) Happy New Year - Rosh Hashana Friday night. Tesla Upgrade - Tesla Inc.’s Dojo supercomputer may add as much as $500 billion to the company’s market value through faster adoption of robotaxis and network services, according to Morgan Stanley. - Dojo can open up “new addressable markets,” just like AWS did for Amazon.com Inc., analysts led by Adam Jonas wrote in a note, upgrading the stock to overweight from equal-weight and raising its 12-month price target to a Street-high $400 per share from $250. - Adam Jonas had a $250 price for Tesla for a while and was not really positive on the shares. But, many say he likes headlines, so this is a perfect way to play it. - Jonas cut his price and overall recommendation in June - Tesla shares up 10% on this upgrade (BTW, Morgan is one of Elon Musk's key advisory firms - so there is that) China - Freaking out? - China's financial regulator on Sunday reduced the risk weighting it attaches to insurance companies' holdings of blue-chip shares and tech stocks, encouraging them to invest more in the country's lagging stock market. - The National Administration of Financial Regulation (NAFR)said on its website that the risk weighting for CSI300 Index constituents would be reduced to 0.3 from 0.35, while that for stocks listed on Shanghai's tech-focused STAR Market would be cut to 0.4, from 0.45. - A lower risk weighting frees up more capital for insurers to invest. - It also set a relatively low risk weighting for private equity investments in China's strategic and emerging sectors. More China - China's economic slowdown could increase the risk of Beijing taking military action toward Taiwan, the Republican chair of a U.S. congressional committee on China said on Monday, drawing a contrast with Democratic President Joe Biden, who said it made it less likely. - So this has to be a dividing line as well? Biden on Sunday called China's econ Yen - Japan - In a weekend interview, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank could end its 7-year-old negative interest rate policy when achievement of its 2% inflation target is in sight - suggesting the BOJ is considering official interest rate hikes as well as an early end its bond-buying, yield cap policy. - The comments seemed to catch markets off guard, sending the 10-year Japanese government bond yield up more than 5 basis points to a 9-year high above 0.7%. The yen surged 1% against the dollar, knocking the U.S. currency back more generally on the foreign exchange markets. Tech - Qualcomm said Monday that it will supply Apple with 5G modems for smartphones through 2026. - Wall Street analysts and Qualcomm officials had previously said they expected Apple to use an internally developed 5G modem starting in 2024. - The continued sales to Apple will boost Qualcomm's handsets business, which reported $5.26 billion in sales in the quarter ended in June, and could soften the blow of potentially losing a critical customer. About 21% of Qualcomm's fiscal 2022 revenue of $44.2 billion came from Apple,

China putting out stimulus ideas daily. Traffic jam in Panama! Weather is causing all sorts of problems Crude oil prices on the rise PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - COVID making the rounds again - J Biden tests positive - Weight loss - UAL Full ground stop today - Gone Private - Back to the Public life (ARM) - More bailouts in China - InfaDisinFlation - Slowing Deflation? Market Update - Hurricane Idalia - The $$ cost to insurers - Employment reports - mixed to good. Fed friendly (but rates creeping again) - What is happening to pharmacies? - GOVY shutdown clock continues - Oil is still rising - Back to School THANK YOU to all who decided it was a good idea to give - we are sending you books for those who graciously donated the special amount to show 666. Employment Report - Revisions to last two months (better) - Payrolls increased to 187,000 - Unemployment rate @3.8% - Rates came down a bit and markets took this as good news VFS Stock China - Continued problems with the economy - New measures over the past week to help real estate sector and lenders - Looks like injection of funds into Country Garden - USD moving to highs against the Yuan OIL - Even though there is a concern about China's economy - oil keeps rising - Oil prices rose on Friday to their highest in over half a year and snapped a two-week losing streak, buoyed by expectations of tightening supplies. - Saudi Arabia decided to keep (extend) the voluntary cuts into October --- 1 million barrels per day -- Crude oil up 8% YTD - BUT, 21% in the last 3-months ----- How does that fit with the deflationary story? Supply Chain/Weather Issues - The average wait time for non-booked vessels at the Panama Canal jumped by between 44% and 59% last month as a prolonged drought led to restrictions on daily transits and ship drafts. - The Panama Canal Authority began imposing the restrictions earlier this year in a move to conserve water. Only 32 vessels with a draft of up to 44 feet are now allowed to pass everyday, from 36 ships and maximum draft of 50 feet in normal conditions. - Waiting time averaged 8.85 days for southbound transit and 9.44 days for northbound passage in August, from 5.56 days and 6.55 days, respectively, in July, according to data from the Panama Canal Authority. VinFast - Follow up - OH My - down 70% from peak ARM - Chip design firm Arm on Tuesday submitted an updated filing for its upcoming blockbuster initial public offering on the New York Stock Exchange, setting a price range between $47 and $51. - Only 9.4% of Arm’s shares will be freely traded on the NYSE. - Arm was previously dually listed in London and New York, before SoftBank acquired it for $32 billion in 2016. Shoot it up! - Novo Nordisk launched its weight-loss injection Wegovy in Britain on Monday, its second debut in Europe in just over a month as the drugmaker seeks to expand in the region even as it struggles to keep up with soaring demand. - Surging demand for the drug, and Novo's highly effective diabetes drug Ozempic, have sent the company's shares and earnings to record highs. - So no problem taking these shots.....(only very recently approved for weight loss as it is a diabetes medicine) - MIRACLE DRUG - Get that shot in the belly roll!| - Danish drugmaker (Novo Nordisk) briefly unseated LVMH as Europe's most valuable listed company in intraday trading on Friday, ending the French luxury group's 2-1/2 year-long reign at the top. COVID - First lady Jill Biden’s positive test for Covid-19 threatens to upend President Joe Biden’s plans to travel to the G-20 summit in India,

We have some insights from Powell's latest speech. China - trying to talk up markets. Big week for eco data - the softer, the better. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Powell Said - NOTHING NEW, Nothing Old, Nothing Really - Unions are next concern for inflation (wages) - Airlines weighing people - Big week for ECO - investors hoping for some weak numbers Market Update - China - Stock Market Support - Govy Trying - markets up last week 0- broke a couple week down streak - End of month - markets watching for employment data this week (Friday) - Players hitting the ask on high-flyers - ESG - not for $ - Crypto Moving on court rulling SPECIAL EPISODE -666. We are asking you for your support on this devlish episode 666 - Donate exactly 66.60 - BUT Donors that go out for the big $666 will get a copy of Too Many Eggs hardcopy - that is well worth it. Big Bounce - Fed threads the needle again - Or the algos set to just buy as Fed talks - Butting up against resistance - Looks more like oversold bounce into end of month Yields - 10-Year - drops to 4.25 from 4.45% - Plenty arguing that the latest move was a top in rates - Avg mortgage rate tops 7% Yields - Tuesday Drop - Yeilds and USd dumping after soft JOLTs report - This is a good JOLTS report from the Fed's perspective. The labor market is cooling. U.S. job openings decreased to 8.8 million (lower than consensus expectations of 9.5), the lowest since March 2021. The mismatch between labor demand (openings) & labor supply (hired) narrowed. - Growht names moving up - dragging entire market with them Unions - Pushing hard for wage hikes - Big increase for pilots and UPS drivers recently - UAW President is looking for proposals that include: (or threat of a strike) - Ford GM and Stellantis - - 46% raise ---- 32 hour work week --- Return to traditional pensions - Recently won a 25% pay hike for workers at Ohio EV factory Crypto in the News - Appeals court ruling against SEC in Grayscale spot bitcoin ETF case - so the idea is that there will be a more accessible way to invest in bitcoin (like it is not now) |- Could be included in peions - Grayscale Trusts: GBTC +18%, ETHE +14%, GDLC +22%... Crypto Miners: MARA +17%, GREE +17%, HUT +16%, RIOT +15%, BITF +14%, SDIG +14%... Others with Crypto exposure: COIN +13.5%, MSTR +7.7%, NVDA +3% ECO This Week - Wednesday --- ADP Emplyment Change - (180k) --- GDP (2) 2.4% - Thursday ---- PCE Inflation 0.2% (MoM)* - Friday --- Non Farm Payrolls 185k /3.6% --- ISM Manufacturing ---Average Hourly earnings 0.3% MoM China - manipulated market - China's stock market in disarray - China Evergrande reopens after 17 month tradig halt (Stock plunges 80%) - Government starting to talk up market - been in a funk for a while --- Reduces stamp duty on stock transactions and other measures to boost confidence (and approves dozens of new funds for investing over weekend) ---- Stock market (CSI 300) opened up 5.5% but trended lower all day Monday (closed up 1.5%) - Lenders and Developer hardships spooking investors AND draining their finances More China - China's foreign ministry said on Monday that inbound travelers to the country no longer need a pre-departure antigen test for COVID-19 from Aug. 30. - US study shows that the abrupt end to Covid restrictions last year may have caused an excess of 2 million deaths. --- Study showed an estimated 1.87 million excess deaths from all causes occurred among people over 30 years of age between December 2022 and January 2023, and were observed in all provinces in mainland China (China said a total of 55,

More Talk from Feds - Jackson Hole Confab Another government shutdown looming? Hot Dogs, get Your Hot Dogs! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - US Rates on the move - Jackson Hole Confab this week - Powell talking Friday - Another government shutdown looming? (September) - Russian Moon Landing - Not so good - Hot Dog Wars - Schmuchalucks Market Update - China freaking out investors - not showing big support - The S&P 500 index fell 2.1% last week, extending the market benchmark's losing streak to a third consecutive week as bond yields climbed to highs not seen in years. - The drop came as Treasury yields rose to multi-year highs; the 10-year Treasury yield hit a 16-year high and the 30-year Treasury yield reached a 12-year high - The SPAC is back? IPO opps? Parts of the market still yearning for risk (casino vs investing) - Moody's gets into the fray - cuts bank ratings Yields - Moving - 10-Year tops 4.35%++ - Long-term on a losing streak --- Meaning: High rates for longer being accepted by markets - also spread may narrow on curve - Minutes released this week from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting indicated most committee members saw "significant upside risks" to inflation, which could prompt the central bank to further raise its benchmark lending rate. Long vs. Short 10-Year Pop! Moody's - Moody's cut credit ratings of several small to mid-sized U.S. banks on Monday and said it may downgrade some of the nation's biggest lenders, warning that the sector's credit strength will likely be tested by funding risks and weaker profitability. - Moody's cut the ratings of 10 banks by one notch and placed six banking giants, including Bank of New York Mellon, US Bancorp State Street and Truist Financial on review for potential downgrades. Inflation - Rice - Rice prices surged to theirhighest in almost 12 years, afterIndia's rice export banand adverse weather conditions dented production and supplies of Asia's primary staple food, according to the UN's food agency. Tesla - Tesla shares (TSLA) led the consumer discretionary sector's drop, falling 11% last week as reports said the electric vehicle maker reduced the prices for its premium Model S and Model X vehicles in China, its second price cut in the country this week. - The company also launched two cheaper versions of its Model S sedan and Model X sports utility vehicle in the US. NVDA - Earnings out on 8/23 - a good bit of optimism going into the print - Recent upgrade to the stock - HSBC upped their tgt onNVIDIA(NVDA) to $780 from $600 Odd Tech - Earnings AFTER the close on Friday (last) --- Worried investors - why would a company do that? (Friday Night Dump?) - - - Stock is ramping higher on the news.... - Palo Alto Networks — The security software vendor soared 12.5% following an earning's beat after the Friday market close. Fiscal fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.44, topping the $1.28 expected from analysts polled by Refinitiv. Revenue, however, fell short Earnings Roundup - Fabrinet surged 21% after its fiscal fourth-quarter results late Monday topped analysts' estimates. The advanced manufacturing services company posted non-GAAP earnings of $1.86 per share, greater than the $1.80 earnings per share expected - Dicks Sporting Goods shares plunged nearly 20% after the retailer reported an earnings miss and cut guidance for the year, due in part to an increase in retail theft ----- The tell ? Dicks announced management layoff and cost savings a day before the earnings - Macy's slid about 1.6% after reporting second-quarter earnings.

Economy on fire in the US - while China sinks to new lows. Housing market sentiment slows - hit by high mortgage rates. Big break for big insurers. The Closest to The Pin Winner! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Musk/Zuck cage-fight news (AGAIN) - FITCH - at it again - M&A in Steel industry - China eco spooks markets (Ghost Economics hits) - Impact of Maui Fires - Focus on A Utility Company Market Update - Sentiment shifting - AI craze dulls some tech selling off - Housing index drops - (builder sentiment) - 7% mortgage rates hit hard - EV price wars - led by Elon (beat them and bury them) - Disinflation is slowing ( Confusing?) Inflation - PPI comes out hot - Concern rising that there is commodity inflation returning - Talk of one more hike this year then cuts mid-2024 (Goldman Sachs Update) - Meanwhile - rates movin' up 10's Moving Yield Curve - Getting Crazy! 2/10's Earnings Season - Almost ending - The blended year-over-year earnings decline for the second quarter is -5.2% today, compared to an earnings decline of -7.4% last week and an earnings decline of -7.0% at the end of the second quarter (June 30). - If -5.2% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the largest year-over-year earnings decline reported by the index since Q3 2020 (-5.7%). It will also mark the third straight quarter in which the index has reported a year-over-year decrease in earnings. - Big mega-cap numbers helped over last week Fitch - Another Warning - Discussed the rationale with Moody's last week - A Fitch Ratings analyst warned that the U.S. banking industry has inched closer to another source of turbulence — the risk of sweeping rating downgrades on dozens of U.S. banks that could even include the likes of JPMorgan Chase. - Another one-notch downgrade of the industry's score, to A+ from AA-, would force Fitch to reevaluate ratings on each of the more than 70 U.S. banks it covers Yen - Intervention - Yen hits 145 - level that has had BOJ intervention previously - Weakening due to easy monetary policy while everywhere else is tightening Yen Japan - 6% GDP (annualized) - expectations were for 3.1% - How do you keep rates at historic lows? China - Just bad news after bad news - So bad they announce a surprise rate cut last night - Discontinued reporting on unemployment of young people - (was record level of  21%+ last month) - Retail sales rose by 2.5% in July from a year ago, below expectations for a 4.5% increase, - Industrial production rose by 3.7% in July from a year ago, below the 4.4% increase analysts had expected - Fixed asset investment rose by 3.4% for the first seven months of the year from a year ago, below the 3.8% forecast - The urban unemployment rate ticked up to 5.3% in July from 5.2% in June More China - One of China’s largest private wealth managers has triggered fresh anxiety about the health of the country’s shadow banking industry after missing payments on multiple high-yield investment products. - Zhongzhi is among the biggest players in the country’s $2.9 trillion trust industry, which combines characteristics of commercial and investment banking, private equity and wealth management. - Firms in the sector pool savings from wealthy households and corporate clients to offer loans and invest in real estate, stocks, bonds and commodities. Russian Ruble Woes - Ruble hits 17 month low - discussion that this is because Russia losing the war? - Russia's central bank on Tuesday hiked interest rates by 350 basis points to 12% at an emergency meeting Cage Fight - Done - Zuck: "I think we can all agree Elon isn't serious and it's time to mo...

YIELDS and the Curve - getting weirder. Bear Twist -Tucked and ran. Earnings season update - big change this week to end the season. The Closest to The Pin standings! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Musk/Zuck cage-fight news - Yields spike - Yield curve spreads - Prominent Bear - begs for mercy (Bullish Bear?) - Beer Ball - Reversing The Trend - Banks - Bowie: Under Pressure (who Else was featured on that song?) Market Update - Market Moving - earnings and ECO - Eco report was confusing many - what is the deal? - Earnings - some big hits and some big misses - An update on earnings season - Markets bummed - more downgrades, China data sucks 30 Second Shameless Host Plugs Inflation - Key CPI report out this week (tomorrow) - but many looking for consistent drop (AH sees potential for near-term bounce higher in inflation) - 3.5% - but weaker additions to payroll/jobs. - Wage growth kicking up again - Manheim Used Car Index -1.6% m/m, -11.6% yr/y (seeing moderation, but prices still high) Employment China Eco - China said Tuesday that exports fell by 14.5% in July from a year ago, while imports dropped by 12.4% in U.S. dollar terms. - That's worse than what analysts had expected. - A Reuters poll predicted a 12.5% decline in exports in July from a year ago, in U.S. dollar terms. Imports were expected to have dropped by 5% during that time, according to the poll. Yield Curve - The U.S. yield curve steepened by 20-30 basis points last week - the biggest steepening since March - and the steepening of the 2-year/30-year yield curve by 30 basis points was one of the biggest weekly moves in over a decade. - Lots of talk from Bill Ackman about shorting the long end of the curve (20-30 yr) Earnings Season - Almost ending - The blended year-over-year earnings decline for the second quarter is -5.2% today, compared to an earnings decline of -7.4% last week and an earnings decline of -7.0% at the end of the second quarter (June 30). - If -5.2% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the largest year-over-year earnings decline reported by the index since Q3 2020 (-5.7%). It will also mark the third straight quarter in which the index has reported a year-over-year decrease in earnings. - Big mega-cap numbers helped over last week DOWNGRADES - Ratings agency Moody's downgraded the credit ratings of several U.S. banks on Monday and warned it was reviewing the status of some of the nation's biggest lenders. - Moody's cut the ratings of 10 U.S. banks by one notch and placed some banking giants on review for potential downgrades. The agency also changed its outlook to negative for several major lenders. Overall, it changed the assessments for 27 banks in the sector. - The downgraded banks include M&T Bank, Pinnacle Financial Partners, Prosperity Bank and BOK Financial Corp . - The banks placed on review for downgrade include BNY Mellon, US Bancorp, State Street and Truist Financial. -"Many banks’ Q2 results showed growing profitability pressures that will reduce their ability to generate internal capital," Moody's wrote in a note. Italy! - How Do You Say Morons in Italian? - deficiente OR il ritardato - Italian banking shares took a beating on Tuesday morning after Italy's cabinet approved a 40% windfall tax on lenders' "excess" profits in 2023. - Just off negative rates and banks being punished again - Italian Deputy Prime Matteo Salvini told a press conference on Monday that the 40% levy on banks' extra profits derived from higher interest rates, amounting to several billion euros, will be used to cut taxes and offer financial support to mortgage holders.