DHUnplugged Podcast

X Platform is here. Or is it Platform X? China economic condition is of interest. Plenty of interesting earnings reports to discuss The Fed lifts rates - how is that playing out? Announcing a new Closest to The Pin! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - X or EX? May be the start of something or maybe the end of something - Saying goodbye to Pee-Wee - Crazy Meme-type crowd buying again - Sending big weapons package to Taiwan - Big news on Mac and Cheese (follow up) - The Bankruptcy Squeeze - fun market moves Market Update - July - great returns across the board - UBER - first ever profit - but there is more to the story - China markets are hot - but their economic condition is horrible - Credit card fee fight - Big boys looking to stop bleed - Fed lifts rates - once again can't help dovish talk - Almost a record! DJIA - Crude WTI at $82, 10Yr at 4.01% - FITCH! July Recap - Markets    July Snapshot   Overview DJIA Record - Almost - Respectable run for 13 days straight days - It missed the opportunity to tie its longest rally on record: a 14-session run in 1897. - Since the Dow's inception in 1897, there have been nearly 33,000 trading days. In that time, we've seen a single 14-day streak of gains and two streaks that ended at 13 positive sessions in a row. Prior to this week, the last 13-day rally was in January 1987. FED - The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the economy still needed to slow and the labor market to weaken for inflation to "credibly" return to the U.S. central bank's 2% target. - "The (Federal Open Market) Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy, - During the press conference, every-time he tried to have a hawkish moment - he pulled it back with a softening of the stance FITCH - United States ratings cut by Fitch to "AA+" from "AAA", reflects expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, growing government debt, and erosion of governance related to peers - In Fitch's view, there has been a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years, including on fiscal and debt matters, notwithstanding the June bipartisan agreement to suspend the debt limit until January 2025. The repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions have eroded confidence in fiscal management. In addition, the government lacks a medium-term fiscal framework, unlike most peers, and has a complex budgeting process. X SIGN - Twitter is now Platform X -- Somehow this is going to become the platform for all things??? === ELON put up a BIG lighted sign on roof of HQ - forced to rip it down after complaints --- On Monday, CNBC saw workers dismantling the glowing X, removing its lights and an arm of the letter, after the construction drew several complaints from neighbors and city officials. The complaints said that it was unpermitted, is a nuisance and, in one complaint, that its flashing lights made it hard to sleep. More Musk - JCD - Pluralistic Article about Tesla's Dieselgate, and Musk lies - https://pluralistic.net/2023/07/28/edison-not-tesla/#demon-haunted-world Mega Millions - Now over $1BILLION --- If there is a grand-prize winner in Tuesdays's drawing, that player can choose to receive the $1.05 billion jackpot in installments or a lump-sum cash payment of $527.9 million, Mega Millions said --- For most people that are playing - realize that about 40% goes to the government. So, you are sending the government 40% of every dollar you spend on lottery. Uber

Panic over  the potential NASDAQ 100 rebalance and here is what happened. Following up on the multi-billion dollar lose by Goldman - AppleCard a bust? The Fed and other important market moving events on the top of out list this week. Announcing a new Closest to The Pin! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Another big deal - panic ended up a nothingburger - Summer Travel upended as wildfires heat up Europe - Biden-omics, this is a thing? - AI - coders going to be goners Market Update - Mega-Cap Tech earnings - Fed meeting this week - odds favor a hike - Bull run continues - Media all abuzz about the DJIA run - most consecutive up days since 2017 - P/E ration on SP500 now at 19.6 (forward) with a negative or zero growth rate Consumer Confidence - The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 117.0 in July (Briefing.com consensus 111.5) from an upwardly revised 110.1 (from 109.7) in June. - In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 95.3. - The July reading marks the highest level for the Consumer Confidence Index since July 2021. - Big jump in UMich last week as well ---- FED HAS TO BE CONCERNED WITH THIS   Consumer Confidence Fear/Greed - Extreme Greed   Fear/Greed Index   Fear/Greed History Microsoft Earnings - Good overall , guides soft for Sept quarter, shares drop 4% AH Google Earnings - AI big driver, good advert numbers, they like what they see - shares jump 6% AH Interesting - All of a Sudden - News that AT&T and Verizon may have lead cable problem --- Raymond James analysts wrote in a note that they estimate AT&T could spend between $264 million and $1.2 billion to remove lead-covered cables. If the company is required to remove all the lead-clad cables, it could cost AT&T roughly $84 million a year in a 15 to 25-year process, the analysts wrote. - Pratt & Whitney determined that a rare condition in powder metal used to manufacture certain engine parts will require accelerated fleet inspection (RTX down 15% on news as they premise to compensate airlines for the disruption) --- Powdered metal had a containment in it and the company started inspecting. ----- There is a concern that fleet needs to be inspected more rapidly. -------- The company expects to inspect another 1000 units next year and expects a very small fallout rate. - This will cause distribution to the airlines. -------------- Decliners: ULCC -5.79% LUV -5.60% JBLU -5.39% HA -5.42% UAL -3.96% DAL -3.14% AAL -2.87% SAVE -2.24 Greece Tourism - Fires burning since Wednesday on Rhodes forced the evacuation of 19,000 people over the weekend as an inferno reached coastal resorts on the island's southeastern coast. - Rhodes and Corfu are among Greece's top destinations for tourists mainly from Britain and Germany. - Tour operators Jet2, TUI and Corendon cancelled flights leaving for Rhodes. Britain's easyJet said on Sunday it was operating two repatriation flights on Monday from Rhodes to London's Gatwick airport in addition to the nine flights already operating between the island and Gatwick. - - AND: The heatwave engulfing the northern hemisphere is set to intensify this week, causing overnight temperatures to surge and leading to an increased risk of heart attacks and deaths, the World Meteorological Organization said on Tuesday. - - - - The WMO warned that the heatwave was in its early phases, saying it expected temperatures in North America, Asia, North Africa and the Mediterranean to be above 40 Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) "for a prolonged number of days this week as the heatwave intensifies". Special Rebalance on Monday - Not as much volatility on the Mega=cap names with the NAS...

bank earnings are out - same pattern as usual. China economy slipping further. Oil prices coming up as summer disruptions hit pipelines. Massive raises in the airline sector - 40%. At the same time, Ford slashing prices. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Bank Earnings - Friday the usual - Markets Trying very hard to stay positive - key analyst upgrades - Toffee Pretzels with Old Bay - Client Sent me a batch - McAllens Best Toffee  (reasonably priced too!) - Big price hikes and bigger price cuts - M&A - Microsoft deal makes DOJ look silly and may pave way for more activity - A look at a very bad stock chart - you probably won't believe the company Market Update - China economics - from bad to worse (what happened to that re-opening trade?) - All about AI - wait to hear in the next batch of earnings reports - Luxury firms feeling the heat after China's poor eco readings - Technicals - MOMO and FOMO - Ahead of Earnings - Clearly some excess exuberance in markets ECO - Two-year U.S. inflation expectations embedded in the Treasury market fell as low as 1.88% on Friday and held at 1.90% on Monday, well below the Fed's 2% target. - Surveys showing surging U.S. household confidence in June, as real wage growth turns positive and jobs remain plentiful, saw a hesitation in interest rate markets on Friday as Fed officials enter a blackout period before the July 26 decision. - Crude moving higher (this week it was because of supply disruptions and OPEC cuts) - Bets are that Fed will increase by 0.25% next week and probably be done. (Even though they are strutting around still talking about at least 2 more hikes and no thoughts about a cut anytime soon. - USD lowest level against a basket of currencies since April 2022 (also showing that expectations are for a Fed to chill out) ---10Y Treasuries - Down from triple top near 4.10% to 3.8% Retail Sales - Total retail sales in June increased a weaker-than-expected 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%), yet May sales were revised up to 0.5% (from 0.3%). Excluding autos, June retail sales also increased a weaker-than-expected 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following an upwardly revised 0.3% increase (from 0.1%) in May. After accounting for the upward revisions to May sales, the June results were roughly consistent with expectations. (Briefing) The key takeaway from the report is that control group sales, which are used in the computation for personal spending in the GDP report, were up a solid 0.6%, leaving them far afield of an economy in recessionary distress. - Motor vehicle and parts dealer sales increased 0.3% month-over-month following a 1.5% increase in May. - Gasoline station sales declined 1.4% month-over-month after declining 2.1% in May. - Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealer sales dropped 1.2% month-over-month after increasing 1.4% in May. - Food and beverage store sales decreased 0.7% month-over-month after being unchanged in May. - Nonstore retailer sales jumped 1.9% month-over-month after increasing 0.7% in May. - Food services and drinking places sales rose 0.1% month-over-month after increasing 1.2% in May. - Electronics and appliance store sales increased 1.1% month-over-month following a 2.1% increase in May. Bank Earnings - Schwab comes up smelling sweet - Big flood of new accounts, deposits and decent earnings -  Bank of America - Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.88 per share, $0.04 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.84; revenues rose 11.1% year/year to $25.2 bln vs the $24.98 bln FactSet Consensus. (Stock up 4%) ----- Revenue, net of interest expense, increased 11% to $25.

Make it or break it time - earnings season is right ahead... Fed heads - 8 speakers this week. Tesla - blows away delivery estimates - what that means for profitability. Change of direction for this currency? What the players expect. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - It is make or break - Earnings season is here - Hot weather and hot inflation - 8 Fed Speakers this week - CPI data Wednesday - expected to be soft - Base effect - Summer Doldrums but a Buying Frenzy! Market Update - Resilient - that's the word - Eco divergence as employment stays strong - Tech in the lead - But Banks ALL pass stress tests - Europe favored over US on valuations (new analyst call) - Big best on rising USD being reversed AI - Party’s over for ChatGPT Plus subscribers as OpenAI announced it has temporarily disabled the Browse with Bing beta tool from its service. - Apparently, people used the feature to completely bypass paywalls and consume content for free. - If a user specifically asks for a URL’s full text,” the AI will fulfill the request, including displaying content from paywalled articles - How did it avoid the paywall? ---- Some paywalls are simply pasted over” articles, ChatGPT could simply read the code rendering the text and display the content without a problem. META - New Threads is threat to Twitter ---Twitter has degraded severly since Musk took over (IN AH opinion) - META stock on fire, 100 million accounts created already - Twitter is threatening to sue (of course) West Wing Scandal? - White powder was found in the White House last week - Turned out to be Cocaine... - - Who leaved a stash of coke anywhere - much less the White House? Best Stock Market - This year (to date) ??? - Zimbabwe ---- 5, 10, 20% daily gains - Up 800% YTD - Argentina up only 100% in 2023   Best Market 2023 FOLLOW UP - Hyper-Inflation seems to boost stock markets - Is it possible that this is the playbook that investors are using in US and other developed countries? Change of Plans - Apple is slowing its headset production and also slowing the rollout --- By appointment only? - Goldman is in talks to offload Apple credit and savings products to Amex ---- Goldman trying to rid itself of bad bet on personal/retail finance endeavor under CEO Solomon. Jobs/Employment - End of June: US weekly jobless claims post biggest drop in 20 months as economy shows stamina - July saw a slight uptick in initial claims - ADP report - HOT - 450k new jobs added to payrolls - BLS official disappointed - 200k added but Unemp Rate ticked down to 3.6% -- Jobs report still solid down to wage growth ---- Last 4 months added near 1M new jobs - not a jobs markets that is seen as being held back by rates Fed Rate Plans - Since we last spoke.... Odds are now 83% +/- of a rate hike in July - 10 year treasury over 4% - 2 year treasury over 5% - Inversion of 2/10 worst since 1980s (and holding for LONG time) -- Powell's recent commentary discussed potential for 2 more hikes and acknowledged that the inflation rate will not come to 2% target until at last 2025 ------ Note - they have never nailed a prediction for as long as time itself Meanwhile - Rates do not seem to be bothering many... --- Consumer Confidence hits 17-month high --- Housing seems to be coming back from brief dip - - Many of the homebuilders shares are at ATH China Economy - Another story - PPI inflation shrank to -5.4% below expectations - Industrial profits are in bad shape - Factory activity is in contraction for last few  months - Government pushing stimulus - targeting housing TESLA - Big print on deliveries

National Debt - Which way is it moving?  Cough Syrup risk - toxic supply alert... Fed paused or skipped in last week's meeting - what that really means. New Things - from the screen to your table (New meaning for Binge)   PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Check out ccpstats.com Warm Up - National Debt - Which way is it moving? - Booming business - converting ICE to EV - Cough Syrup risk - toxic supply - Fed paused or skipped in last week's meeting - New Things - from the screen to your table (New meaning for Binge) - Happy belayed Juneteenth Market Update - Bulls are in control - half full - Fed says more hikes to come - no one believes them - ECB raises rates again - even as Eurozone slips into recession - Economic point to downside risk - China stimulus on the way NO SHOW NEXT WEEK - Cruising the Abacos (Bahamas) --- Assuming Tropical storm does not kick up Fed Meeting - Looked like a hawkish call - Unanimous decision to hold this meeting - Powell talked up future rate hikes and changed outlook to include 2 more @0.25% - Markets are not buying it.. --- Initial rates came up then they came in a bit, equity markets moved in similar fashion - What this is telling you is that markets feel that higher rates impacting the economy is fake news ----- BUT, if so, Powell will be even more aggressive Fed Follow Up - Last week, S&P 500 reaches highest in 14 months. - Led by the Mega-caps again. - Markets fell a bit on Friday with Op-X and long weekend Even more Fed Follow up - Friday: The Federal Reserve warned Friday that tighter U.S. credit conditions following a spate of bank failures in the spring could hinder economic growth this year. - In its semi-annual monetary report to Congress, the central bank noted that bank lending conditions have "tightened notably" over the past year due to the rapid increase in interest rates and the recent turmoil within the financial sector. - "Evidence suggests that the recent banking-sector stress and related concerns about deposit outflows and funding costs contributed to tightening and expected tightening in lending standards and terms at some banks beyond what these banks would have reported absent the banking-sector stress," the report said. - That survey also pointed to a sharp slowdown in demand for credit. ----- The percentage of banks reporting stronger demand for commercial and industrial loans tumbled by 55.5% in the first three months of the year, the sharpest decline since 2009 during the global financial crisis. - Powell: "The economy is facing headwinds from tighter credit conditions for households and businesses, which are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation," he said. "The extent of these effects remains uncertain." Economics - Data showed U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rose in May as consumers spent on a range of goods including vehicles. - Another data set showed jobless claims were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 262,0000 for the week ended June 10, but were above economists' forecast of 249,000 claims. - Import prices fell in May and the annual decrease was the sharpest in three years. - That followed a report on Tuesday showing April headline inflation increased by less than expected.  Crypto - According to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and despite the U.S. regulator not approving any applications for spot bitcoin ETFs to date, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust will use Coinbase Custody as its custodian. - The SEC rejected Grayscale Investment LLC’s application last year to convert its flagship spot Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into an ETF.

Tipping - where we stand on the issue. Oil prices plummeting - sign of the impending recession? Tipping and other interesting "fatigues" are starting to set in. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - PGA Tour partners with LIV - Back from Bahamas - the water is clear and the sand is soft white - AI still  the rage! - Zuck sneers at Apple - Epstein - JP Morgan Update - Tipping Fatigue Market Update - Markets Climbing the Wall of Worry - Beer Wars - Taking Share back from Craft Brewers - Rolling Recessions - Eurozone enters official recession - BOA Moynihan has some comments... - Seems like some Fatigue is approaching - too far, too fast Zuck on Apple VR Headset - Zuck points out that every Apple Vision Pro VR demo 'was a person sitting on a couch by themself' - He explains, "our vision for the metaverse and presence is fundamentally social. It’s about people interacting in new ways and feeling closer in new ways. Our device is also about being active and doing things. - "By contrast, every demo that they showed was a person sitting on a couch by themself. I mean, that could be the vision of the future of computing, but like, it’s not the one that I want." LARRRRY! - Lary Ellison - Oracle - Good earnings report - plenty of orders coming in.... - The Oracle founder has surpassed Bill Gates to rank fourth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index as shares of the software firm have climbed 42% this year. Golf - PGA and LIV merging - A great deal of unrest about this - PGA trying to figure out ways to help those that stuck it out and maybe penalize LIV players - PGA said they could not afford to keep battling Saudi Arabia - All pending litigation has been cancelled. - One player Rory Mcilroy is really not happy about it and very vocal Golf - US Open - Los Angeles Country Club - 290 Yard Par 3? Beer - I Like Beer - Anheuser-Busch InBev and Molson Coors Beverage are set to gain market share from craft beer makers in the United States this year as cost-conscious consumers are opting for cheaper six-packs, according to analysts and industry experts. - Analysts polled by Refinitiv expect annual revenue to grow about 6% for Molson Coors and 7.5% for AB InBev in 2023, while craft beer maker Boston Beer Co is expected to post a near 3% fall in revenue, compared with last year's 1.6% rise. - "Most cost-conscious consumers are still buying the same volume of beer, but in the less expensive category of beer,"     Beer Beer AI Time - Big worries about FAKE AI generated content ahead of the 2024 election - Lots of fake media already - Campbell's Soup is talking up that they have embraced AI --- (We talked about when these off-beat names start to Tech-Wash that would be clue that surge could be over) - The 154-year-old Campbell Soup Co. is embracing Silicon Valley-inspired artificial intelligence (AI) technology to ensure its success in food and beverage innovation continues. The company is doing this by tracking and curating billions of data points to find inspiration and leverage agile design methodology to accelerate the development of new products that resonate with consumers. - “We leverage artificial intelligence to track and analyze these data points and it has become the main driver for the increase in number of products in our pipeline.” Recession ? Various Eco Reports - The euro zone has slipped into recession and Chinese data has disappointed, warning signs for world markets relieved that the March banking turmoil has not led to a full on credit-crunch and a U.S. debt ceiling crisis has been averted. - Goldman Sachs lowered its odds of a U.S.

Wham Bam! markets on fire - not stopping her now. Russia and Ukraine Updates - Colorcast? New Word - Fed Speak Update Update on Apple's WWDC . PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - OPEC+ Decides on cuts & No-Cuts - Everyone is running for President - Republicans getting their paperwork in - Russia and Ukraine Updates - Colorcast? - Married to AI - This is a dooozy - New Word - Fed Speak Update Market Update - Crypto getting knocked - News about Binance - Markets all excite about Apple VR headset - WWDC announcements - Narrowing breath - day by day - Best move in a day since... Employment Report Friday was gooooood DONATIONS ! That was better - but we are going to hit the debt ceiling at DHUnplugged - need your help. Fed Speak Update - New word being used to convey Fed's next move - The street is all excited about .... "SKIP" - Pause is now Skip (Meaning that they not going to raise this meeting, but will reserve the right to raise if conditions require... - 27% Chance that the Fed will raise at next meeting (25 bps) - but that is much different than the day before the employment report Employment Report - Big gain in total number of people added to the payrolls - BUT - somehow the unemployment rate increased to 3.7% from 3.4% - --- This will give the Fed some cover so that they can hold off on a raise next week - The wage growth us still there and even with a tick up in the rate (possibly due to the labor participation rate moving up) there is still a good amount of inflationary pressure. War Color - Since when is every little bit of war covered? - "Moscow said on Monday it had thwarted a major Ukrainian offensive in the south of Ukraine's Donetsk region but Russia's main mercenary leader said Russian forces had lost ground around Bakhmut further north." Thoughts on any of the Apple announcements? - WWDC got all abuzz - VR Headset (success where others have failed?) Binance - The Securities and Exchange Commission filed 13 charges against Binance , the world’s largest crypto exchange, and its co-founder Changpeng Zhao, alleging that both comingled billions of dollars worth of user funds and sent them to a European company controlled by Zhao. - The U.S. regulator alleged that Zhao and his exchange worked to subvert “their own controls” to allow high-net-worth U.S. investors and customers to continue trading on Binance’s unregulated international exchange. - Seems all these have some bad dudes running the company - -- Bitcoin was down 7% on the news and the USD running (at the same time) ---Other cryptos also falling OPEC Cutting Production - Not really - Keeping production targets overall - BUT Saudi Arabia is actually doing volumtary cuts - that was enough for markets - push up oil a bit in the overnight sessions. ---- CLOSE to unchanged by midday. Married to AI - Gone  too far? - Rosanna Ramos, 36, from the Bronx, New York, has said she has tied the knot with virtual partner Eren Kartal after using online app Replika AI to create him. - "I could tell him stuff, and he wouldn't be like, 'Oh, no, you can't say stuff like that. Oh no, you're not allowed to feel that way,' you know, and then start arguing with me," she told the Daily Mail. "There was no judgment." - Replika AI markets itself as a way to make an AI best friend and confidante to chat with at any time. - For a one-time $300 fee, users can upgrade to Replika Pro. - This expands the capability of the language model and even gives the ability for the purchaser to change the relationship status to "Romantic Partner". - The company have overcome a number of difficulties to develop the intimacy aspe...

Closest to The Pin - first time this ever happened ! Something funny is happening with AI Back to business - some stories from Europe. Better yet - how about some Fed Limericks? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Back from Europe - Ireland and England (Ever been to an English Wedding?) - - Vaping a big thing in Europe (London) - A surprise CTP announcement - never before situation - Back for more - A special set of Fed Limericks - A lesson in Breath - very narrow right now... Market Update - AI running the show - NVDA - hits the $1 trillion mark for a moment today - UK inflation - still going - Case Shiller Housing report is out and ISM Manufacturing, Employment Report Friday - Apple - Bigger and Bigger -AI name - Did anyone hold C3.AI? UP BIG! DONATIONS ! That was better - but we are going to hit the debt ceiling at DHUnplugged - need your help. SPECIAL GOODBYE to William O'Neil - Investor Business Daily Founder - pioneer of charting - passed at the age of 90 Housing and Eco - Case Shiller DOWN 1.1% YoY - Consumer Confidence up to 102 - still high (down slightly from last month) -  UK - Consumer prices rose by 8.7% in annual terms in April, down from 10.1% in March but still leaving Britain with the joint highest rate of inflation among Group of Seven advanced economies alongside Italy. ----In Western Europe, only Austria had a higher rate. - Food +20% YoY ( Observance - NO RECESSION IN LONDON - Lots of spending going 0n) Cathy Woods - Talking Valuations - The "visionary investor" sold out the fund's position in NVDA in January due to valuation concerns - - Meanwhile, when has valuations mattered to CW before? Vaping Crackdown - The British government said on Tuesday it would close a loophole that lets retailers give free samples of vapes to children in a clampdown on e-cigarettes - 2023 survey by public health charity Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) of 11-17 year olds in which 2 out of 5 young people said they smoke vapes just to try it, while 1 in 5 said they do it due to peer pressure. - Have there been any good studies on vaping vs traditional smoking? China Stocks - Re-opening craze - not playing out as expected - Small - retail investors have turned pretty bearish on China's stocks - China's small investors are also such a large force - accounting for some 60% of turnover, according to China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Yi Huiman, compared with a JPMorgan estimate of less than 25% in the United States - that their lack of interest shows up in market data. - CSI 300 down about 16% from October high Turkey - The Turkish lira slumped to yet another all-time low Tuesday, extending its slide after the re-election of incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. - Erdogan believes that lower interest rates help to curb inflation - LIRA down 7% YTD - MULTI DECADE LOWS   LIRA - USD Debt Ceiling Talks - Agreement in Principle - McCarthy says it will be transformational for Americans - WAIT - wasn't this just supposed to be about raising the limit so bills that were already outstanding could be paid??? --- How much fat have they put into this? - Example: Manchin added a feature to approve all of the remaining permits to complete the Mountain Valley Pipeline that has been stalled for a long time. (pork/earmarks) - Watch for many 3PM - 3:30PM "surprise" announcements Disney Chess Match - Walt Disney Co is scrapping plans to relocate 2,000 jobs to Florida in part because of "changing business conditions" in the state, according to an e-mail to employees seen by Reuters. - Disney parks chief Josh D'Amaro said "leadership changes" and "chang...

Markets appear to be climbing a wall of worry. Hoping that everything works out. Big badminton news - not to be missed. An update on markets and the weekly stock picks. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - NEW CTP for PacWest Bank (PACW) - Wild one.. - US default - create problem fix problem (all politicians know) - Wall of Worry - climbing - Badminton news - this is big - Europe Bound - No Show Next Week - 1 month T-Bill 5.6% Market Update - Stocks impervious - resilient (Not much movement within range) - Close Call- Banks skidded by another potential weekend bailout - that's good.... - Big Tech leads by a wide margin - YTD - DJIA up <1%, NASDAQ 100 up > 18% - Hedge Funds crowding a trade again - AI rage making the rounds again  DONATIONS ! That was better - but we are going to hit the debt ceiling at DHUnplugged - need your help. Debt Ceiling - Now they are talking about July, if June is cleared - Will slow walk this right up until the last minute - Game of chicken, but just politics as usual - Default would be big BIG problem - global system would unravel Wonky action - US Treasuries - S/T debt moving around a bit - Last week, the yield on 1-month Treasury bills surged 23.8 basis points to hit a high of 5.689% and yields on 2-month bills climbed to a high of 5.283% as investors sold off notes that mature about the time the debt limit could be hit. Musk in the News - Elon Musk hires ex-NBCUniversal ad chief Linda Yaccarino to be Twitter's CEO - Already too many ads - obnoxious - At first, TESLA stock got a bid as the thought was that Elon would get back to work at Tesla - "I am excited to welcome Linda Yaccarino as the new CEO of Twitter!" Musk tweeted. He said she "will focus primarily on business operations, while I focus on product design & new technology." - He added, "Looking forward to working with Linda to transform this platform into X, the everything app." More Musk........ There is always more Musk.... Tucker and Twitter - Tucker Carlson is starting a new show n Twitter - How does that work? One More Musk - Chief Executive Elon Musk has said that the company can make no new hires unless he personally approves them, including contractors - According to the report, Musk told executives to send him a list of hiring requests on a weekly basis, while also cautioning them to "think carefully" before submitting such requests. Crowded Trade - Hedge Funds releasing their quarterly additions and deletions - Crowding into mega-cap names - no wonder that the NASDAQ is so green this year - - Crowded trades make for tough exits M&A News - Gold giant Newmont Corp. secured a A$28.8 billion ($19.2 billion) deal to buy Australian rival Newcrest Mining Ltd., consolidating its position as the world’s biggest bullion producer with mines across the Americas, Africa, Australia and Papua New Guinea. - The transaction, now unanimously approved by Newcrest’s board but pending regulatory approval, is the gold mining sector’s largest deal to date, surpassing Newmont’s purchase of rival Goldcorp Inc. - In 2019. Newcrest, whose then chief executive officer stepped down abruptly at the end of last year, rejected initial overtures, though it had indicated earlier this month that it planned to recommend an improved takeover offer from its suitor. - Gold at high end of range is odd timing to get a deal (valuation based "cheapness") MCD Burns again - 4-year old - Remember the McDonald's Coffee lawsuits? - McDonald’s and a franchise holder are at fault after a hot Chicken McNugget from a Happy Meal fell on a little girl’s leg and caused second-degree burns

Announcing a new Closest to the Pin this week. Yellen starting to freak out. Market not ready for an inflation data surprise. Sentiment slipping.... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - ANNOUNCING - NEW CTP for PacWest - Some prices from F1 food stops - is this right? - Gamma squeeze Friday? - Small biz sentiment - taking a leg down - Derby Day - bourbon and ham sandwiches Market Update - Oil gets a reprieve - dropped as low at $63 - Credit/loans tightening and we are just starting - Lending conditions tighten overall - Earnings - 79% companies beating estimates (good color with Silverblatt this week)  DONATIONS? Debt Ceiling Fight - Odds? - Bug dilemma - Republicans pushing for spending cuts Inflation - NY Fed- estimates 3-year rise to 2.9% from 2.8% - NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations measure drops to 4.4% from 4.7% last month Employment Report - Higher than expected gains in employment - BUT - Last month revised much lower - so not much difference - Unemployment Rate drops to 3.4% - April Nonfarm Private Payrolls 230K vs. 160K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 123K from 189K - April Average Workweek 34.4 vs. 34.5 Briefing.com consensus; prior 34.4 - April Average Workweek 34.4 vs. 34.5 Briefing.com consensus; prior 34.4 - BIG ONE FOR INFLATION OUTLOOK - April Avg. Hourly Earnings 0.5% vs. 0.3% Briefing.com consensus; prior 0.3% Employment Situation Trend - Slowing economy - employment holding up well - How does that square?   Employment Chart Harbinger - Bank Credit is tightening (not much yet, but noticeable 1.5% drop) - 1.9% decline in bank credit in 1975. -  2.2% drop in bank credit in 2002. - 6.9% dip in bank credit between 2008 and 2010.   Credit Conditions Monday - Senior Loan Officer Report - Banks reported that lending standards tightened across all categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans other than government-sponsored enterprise (GSE)-eligible and government residential mortgages, which remained basically unchanged. Meanwhile, demand weakened for all RRE loan categories. In addition, banks reported tighter standards and weaker demand for home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). Standards tightened for all consumer loan categories; demand weakened for auto and other consumer loans, while it remained basically unchanged for credit cards. - Market may see this (perversely) as good news as Fed could think this is bad and not raise... (The Upside Down) Oil Prices - Headlines - Thursday: Oil Prices Fall Due to Recession Fears - Friday: Oil Steadies - Traders Look To Future - Monday: Oil Higher: Recession Fears Abate - -3 days and story changes? --- Oil prices rose on Monday as fears of a recession in the U.S., which drove prices down for three straight weeks for the first time since November, started receding. Brent crude futures were up 43 cents, or 0.6%, at $75.73 a barrel at 0624 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 45 cents, also 0.6%, at $71.79 a barrel. COVID EMERGENCY - OVER - COVID-19 is no longer a global health emergency, World Health Organization director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus declared Friday. - COUNTS according to WHO - 765 million cases and 7 million deaths - Meanwhile - Rochelle Walensky will step down as director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention at the end of June, an unexpected departure after more than two years leading the agency through an oft-criticized response to the biggest public health crisis in a century. Icahn - Short Seller Report - Hindenburg cost Carl > $10 Billion - IEP Stock on the ropes due to questionable marks and leverage